Oct 30: Apple's crown, decided by tonight's close. And Israel's count is done, but the math isn't

Cold open

Maya: At last night's closing bell, NVIDIA was the most valuable company in the world. Before dinner time in New York, the market made Apple the favorite to end the month on top.

Daniel: On less than ten thousand dollars of trading. For a five trillion dollar title.

Maya: This is The Poly Brief. It's Friday, October thirtieth. I'm Maya.

Daniel: And I'm Daniel. Every day we take the biggest moves on Polymarket, show you where the odds stand, and ask: why is the market betting this way?

Maya: Today: Apple and NVIDIA, and a crown that gets decided at four o'clock this afternoon, New York time. Then Israel. Every vote is counted. Nobody has a government. Let's go.

Story 1: Apple vs NVIDIA

Maya: Story one. The board. Largest company in the world at the end of October. Apple: sixty five percent. NVIDIA: thirty five.

Daniel: On Wednesday afternoon, Apple was at about six percent. Early yesterday, eleven. That's a jump of fifty three points in a day.

Daniel: It's a small market. About a hundred and thirty thousand dollars traded in the last day.

Maya: And the rules?

Daniel: The biggest company by market value on October thirty first, at market close. October thirty first is a Saturday. So, the way we read it, today's close decides.

Maya: So where do they stand right now?

Daniel: At Thursday's close, NVIDIA was worth about five point one six trillion dollars. Apple, five point zero nine. NVIDIA was still ahead by about sixty seven billion. One point three percent.

Daniel: A day earlier, the gap was about a hundred and eighty billion. So it shrank by almost two thirds in one session.

Maya: Okay. Why is the market betting Apple?

Daniel: Reason one: the gap is tiny. One point three percent. If Apple rises by about two thirds of a percent today, and NVIDIA falls by about the same, they swap.

Daniel: Reason two: the trend. On Thursday, Apple set a record closing high. Up one and a half percent. It's up about twenty six percent this year. NVIDIA, about fifteen.

Daniel: And NVIDIA fell about twelve percent from October sixth to October twenty third, according to an analysis on Yahoo Finance.

Daniel: Reason three: NVIDIA had a rough Thursday. The New York Times reported that US intelligence concluded an executive at a Singapore company gathered intelligence for Beijing, and was close to Jensen Huang.

Daniel: Nvidia says those were ordinary business dealings. And the reports themselves say the allegations don't show Huang knowingly helped. Same morning, a reported Justice Department look at its twelve point nine billion dollar Hugging Face deal.

Daniel: And Alphabet fell about ten percent after its earnings, according to TheStreet's live blog. Not a great day to be an AI stock.

Maya: And the flip itself? When did the market change its mind?

Daniel: After the closing bell. At a quarter past six in the evening, New York time, Apple was at thirty percent. Thirty five minutes later, sixty three.

Daniel: From the closing bell to eight in the evening, less than ten thousand dollars traded on Apple. Fifty one accounts. We looked for a headline at that hour, and we didn't find one.

Maya: So a five trillion dollar ranking, priced by fifty one people over dinner.

Maya: The other side. What keeps NVIDIA on top?

Daniel: First, it's done this before. Last Friday, October twenty third, Apple passed NVIDIA during the day. By the close, NVIDIA was back on top.

Daniel: Second, one point three percent is nothing for NVIDIA. This month it fell four point four percent in one day, and rose two point four in another.

Daniel: Third, Apple is already above where analysts think it should be. The average price target, according to MarketBeat, is about three hundred and forty one dollars. It closed at almost three hundred and forty nine.

Maya: And the longer race?

Daniel: End of December. NVIDIA, fifty two percent. Apple, forty five. On October fifteenth we told you NVIDIA was at seventy one. NVIDIA has been number one since June of last year, apart from a few brief moments. Back in July, Apple passed it for a while.

Maya: What to watch. Today's close, four in the afternoon in New York. Then Apple reports its earnings on Monday, after the bell.

Daniel: And we'll be back on Sunday to tell you who called it.

Maya: Bottom line: the market is betting that a one percent gap closes in one day. It almost closed last Friday too. Sixty five percent still means about one time in three, NVIDIA keeps the crown.

Daniel: If you want the scoreboard without refreshing a stock app all afternoon, hit follow. We refresh it so you don't have to.

Bridge

Maya: Daniel, are you doing the dinner tonight? At your parents'?

Daniel: Fourteen people. And my mother asked me to do the seating chart.

Maya: Oh no.

Daniel: My uncle won't sit next to my cousin. My cousin will only come if he's not next to my uncle. And my aunt? She'll sit anywhere. Just not at the end.

Maya: So you have fourteen chairs and nobody who can sit in them.

Daniel: I have a majority of chairs. I don't have a table.

Maya: Funny. That's exactly the problem in Israel this morning.

Story 2: Israel, the count is done

Maya: Story two. The board. Next prime minister of Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu, forty and a half percent, down four in a day.

Maya: Gadi Eisenkot: thirty three point six. Up nine in a day. About two million dollars traded in the last day.

Daniel: And the count is done. With every vote counted, according to the Times of Israel, the Likud party has twenty seven seats. Eisenkot's party, twenty one.

Daniel: Netanyahu's bloc: fifty three. Eisenkot's bloc: forty eight. The Arab parties: nineteen, a record. And turnout was about seventy eight percent.

Maya: And yesterday the market had the Likud party at twenty five to twenty nine seats, at ninety eight percent. Twenty seven. That one, it got.

Daniel: Then there's Ra'am, Mansour Abbas's party. The market on eight seats or more: ninety seven percent. Yesterday at six in the morning, Israel time, it was at six percent.

Maya: What happened?

Daniel: The count gave Ra'am its eighth seat at about six in the morning, with ninety one percent counted. And the market didn't buy it. Eleven in the morning, thirty percent. Two in the afternoon, fifty five.

Daniel: It only went above ninety at about six in the evening, after the double envelopes, mostly soldiers, were almost all counted. And Ra'am still had eight.

Maya: So the count said eight at breakfast, and the market believed it at dinner. After Tuesday night, honestly, fair enough.

Maya: Now Eisenkot. He was at about twenty four and a half at seven in the evening yesterday, Israel time. By eleven, thirty two. Why?

Daniel: Three things happened around then. We can show you the timing. We can't prove which one did it.

Daniel: Number one: at about seven, Eisenkot met Naftali Bennett. They put out a joint statement about forming a government as quickly as possible.

Daniel: Number two: half an hour later, the same account that bet a hundred and twenty nine thousand dollars against Eisenkot on Wednesday sold a big part of that bet. About sixty nine thousand dollars' worth, in one trade.

Maya: Yesterday's whale. Taking some money off the table.

Daniel: Number three: United Torah Judaism, the ultra-Orthodox party with seven seats. In the afternoon, a senior official told Ynet they would offer Eisenkot support for prime minister. On one condition: an exemption from the military draft.

Daniel: If that party just abstains, Netanyahu's bloc goes from fifty three to forty six. Eisenkot has forty eight. On paper, forty eight against forty six.

Daniel: The Times of Israel ran it in English at about ten thirty at night. The price moved up again around then.

Maya: The other side. Why is Eisenkot still only at a third?

Daniel: First, the party's own chairman, Yaakov Asher, said there have been no contacts at all.

Daniel: Second, the condition. The offer is support in exchange for a draft exemption. That same night, Eisenkot vowed to advance a draft law.

Maya: So the offer and the answer came out on the same evening.

Daniel: Third, Ra'am. Mansour Abbas reportedly said in a closed meeting that the chances of a minority government are slim to nonexistent. And Avigdor Lieberman still says no to Netanyahu, and no to a government that relies on the Arab parties.

Daniel: And Netanyahu's side is floating a unity government with Eisenkot, according to the Jerusalem Post. One version is a rotation, about two years each.

Maya: And why is Netanyahu at forty, and not higher?

Daniel: Fifty three seats is eight short. He needs someone from the other bloc, and so far everyone there says no. And remember, if there's another election, he stays as caretaker, and this market pays only for a prime minister who is sworn in.

Maya: What to watch. Official results go to President Herzog on Wednesday, November fourth. Then each party tells him who it recommends.

Daniel: The new Knesset is sworn in on November tenth. Whoever gets the first mandate has twenty eight days, plus fourteen more. We'll be back around November twelfth for the first mandate.

Maya: Bottom line: the count is over, and the market is still counting. Not seats this time. Chairs.

Close

Maya: That's The Poly Brief for this week. Every article and number is linked in the description.

Daniel: And a reminder: these odds are prices, not prophecies. Nothing here is investment advice. Sixty five percent for Apple means about one time in three, it doesn't happen.

Maya: If you liked it, follow or subscribe, leave us a rating, and send it to the friend who's doing the seating chart this weekend.

Daniel: Next week, the US midterms are on Tuesday. Have a great weekend. See you next week!