Oct 22: Putin says 'around November tenth', the talks market jumps 30 points, and the NBA champions are priced fifth

Cold open

Maya: Wednesday morning, the market gave Russia and Ukraine less than a coin flip to sit down and talk before the end of the year.

Daniel: Then the Kremlin gave a date: around the tenth of November. Now it's eighty percent.

Maya: This is The Poly Brief. It's Thursday, October twenty second. I'm Maya.

Daniel: And I'm Daniel. Every day we take the biggest moves on Polymarket, show you where the odds stand, and ask: why is the market betting this way?

Maya: Today: Russia, Ukraine, and a date in November. And then, the NBA season is three days old, and the champions are already being treated like underdogs.

Story 1: Russia and Ukraine talks

Maya: The board. Will Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks by December thirty first? Yes: eighty percent. Up almost thirty points in one day.

Daniel: By November thirtieth: sixty eight, also up thirty. And by October thirty first? Fourteen. That one barely moved. Because every date anyone has mentioned is in November.

Maya: So the market is sure about November, and not at all about next week.

Daniel: Exactly. And one more thing about the board. This is a small market. About one point eight million dollars traded in total. So it moves fast, in both directions.

Daniel: A month ago, the December date was around seventy. The low came last Sunday morning. Twenty nine and a half. And now, eighty.

Maya: So in four weeks, it went from likely, to unlikely, to very likely.

Maya: What happened?

Daniel: On Wednesday, President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin at the Constantine Palace in Saint Petersburg. Nearly three hours. Jared Kushner joined by video.

Daniel: Afterwards, Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia is ready, in principle, to resume the three way talks with the US and Ukraine. Quote: around the tenth of November.

Maya: And what would they talk about?

Daniel: In the Kremlin's words: a security system for Russia and Ukraine after the end of the conflict. Probably in Abu Dhabi, at the expert level, like the earlier rounds.

Maya: And when did the market react?

Daniel: The Kremlin posted the readout in the afternoon, Moscow time. The Associated Press headline went out just before ten in the morning Eastern. That same hour, the December market went from forty four and a half to fifty seven and a half. Two hours later, seventy three and a half.

Daniel: And in Kyiv, in the evening, President Zelensky confirmed it. He said Russia supports a meeting at the level of the negotiating teams. He also said: I do not know the final dates yet. The Americans want it as soon as possible, and he said: we support that.

Maya: Okay. So why eighty percent, and not fifty? Give me the reasons.

Daniel: Reason one: this time everyone said yes on the same day. The Kremlin, then Kyiv, and the US side pushing for sooner. The market's bar is just a meeting of official representatives. Not a deal. Just a room.

Daniel: Reason two: there's a format, and it's been used. Early this year there were three rounds. Abu Dhabi in January. Abu Dhabi again in February. And Geneva, also in February. So nobody has to invent a table.

Daniel: Reason three: a gesture. Just before the meeting, Russia released Stephen Hubbard, a seventy four year old American held for more than four years. Putin told Witkoff: he is at Pulkovo Airport. Trump wrote that no swap was necessary.

Maya: Now the other side. What could make eighty percent wrong?

Daniel: First: we've seen this movie. Ushakov himself said a round was ready several weeks ago, and it was cancelled. Moscow blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russia's parliamentary election day.

Daniel: Second: the strikes haven't stopped. On Wednesday, the same day as the meeting, Russian attacks killed three people in Kyiv and two near Kharkiv, according to the AP. An energy truce Trump announced on October eleventh hasn't held.

Maya: So the talks about talks happen while the war goes on.

Daniel: Yes. Third: the rounds this year produced, in the AP's words, little progress beyond exchanges of prisoners. And the Kremlin is clear about what it's not offering. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, on Wednesday: Russia needs peace, not a ceasefire.

Daniel: And the two sides want different things from the next step. Zelensky wants a leaders' meeting, him, Putin and Trump. Russia has rejected that format. Ushakov called the talks in Oslo this week not very useful. Witkoff called them productive.

Maya: Same meeting. Two very different reviews.

Maya: What to watch. The target is around November tenth, in Abu Dhabi or Geneva. Then November eighteenth and nineteenth, the APEC summit in Shenzhen. Putin is going, and he wants to discuss a meeting with Trump in China in mid November.

Maya: Bottom line: the market isn't betting on peace. It's betting on a meeting. And for a meeting, all three sides said yes on the same day. We'll be back on December first to see who called it.

Daniel: And if you want to be here for that, hit follow. We promise not to postpone.

Bridge

Maya: Daniel, do you know what woke me up this morning? Not the alarm.

Daniel: Let me guess. The neighbors' renovation?

Maya: A basketball. Bouncing. Upstairs. Six in the morning. The kid upstairs has decided he's going pro.

Daniel: Respect the dedication.

Maya: I respect it at ten. At six, I'm a skeptic.

Daniel: Well, he picked a good week. Because the NBA season just started. And the market already has opinions.

Story 2: NBA champion

Maya: Story two. The board. Who wins the twenty twenty seven NBA championship? Oklahoma City Thunder: twenty one and a half percent. San Antonio Spurs: nineteen and a half. Philadelphia seventy sixers: ten.

Daniel: Then the New York Knicks, seven and a half. Boston, six and a half. About twenty eight and a half million dollars traded on this market.

Daniel: The Thunder are up two points in a week, the Spurs down two. About what one game in October should be worth.

Maya: Wait. The Knicks. Didn't the Knicks win it?

Daniel: They did. In June they beat the Spurs four games to one. Their first title since nineteen seventy three. Jalen Brunson scored forty five in the clincher and was Finals MVP. And in Game four they came back from twenty nine points down.

Maya: And the market has the champions fifth.

Daniel: Fifth. And Tuesday didn't help. Opening night, the Knicks raised the banner, handed out the rings, and then lost to Philadelphia, one hundred six to one hundred.

Maya: Let me guess who was on Philadelphia.

Daniel: LeBron James. Forty one years old, his twenty fourth season, his first game as a Sixer. Fourteen points, nine rebounds, seven assists. His first Sixers dunk came on an alley oop from Jaylen Brown, who Boston traded to Philly this summer.

Daniel: He also arrived by helicopter, got heckled about it courtside, and Spike Lee had to step in as peacemaker.

Maya: Fifty three years of waiting for a banner, and the party lasted until tipoff.

Maya: Okay. Why is Oklahoma City the favorite?

Daniel: Reason one: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The two time reigning MVP. Sixty four wins last season. And on opening night they went to San Antonio and won by twelve. Shai scored thirty two.

Daniel: Reason two: revenge. The Spurs knocked them out last May, Game seven of the Western Conference finals, in Oklahoma City. So Tuesday was Game eight, and the Thunder were up twenty one at halftime.

Maya: And the Spurs?

Daniel: Victor Wembanyama, Defensive Player of the Year, sixty two wins, and a trip to the Finals. But Tuesday was rough. He missed his first twelve shots. One was an alley oop that a rookie blocked.

Daniel: There was also a scuffle, and four technical fouls. Three of them went to players named Williams.

Maya: Different Williamses?

Daniel: Three different Williamses. Jaylin, Jalen, and Kenrich. That's not a scuffle. That's a family reunion.

Maya: The other side. Why could twenty one percent be too much, or too little?

Daniel: First: the favorite doesn't win that often. Since nineteen eighty five, the preseason favorite won the title in about half of the seasons. That's from Sportico, with data through twenty twenty.

Daniel: And lately it's worse. Eight different champions in the last eight seasons. Nobody has won two in a row since Golden State, in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen.

Daniel: Second: the Thunder got cheaper on purpose. This summer they traded Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. General manager Sam Presti called the Dort trade a financial decision. And his own forecast came with a condition: if we stay healthy.

Daniel: Third: the sportsbooks are more confident. DraftKings had Oklahoma City and San Antonio at about twenty seven percent each, though that includes the bookmaker's cut. So the market is a bit more humble than the bookies.

Maya: So add it up. The top five teams come to about sixty five percent.

Daniel: Which means about a third of the money says: somebody else. The field is the real favorite.

Maya: What to watch. The NBA Cup starts on October thirtieth, with the final on December eleventh. The trade deadline is February eleventh. Playoffs start April seventeenth, and the Finals are in June.

Maya: Bottom line: the market says it's Oklahoma City or San Antonio. History says it's probably somebody else. And the champions are fifth. We'll check who called it in June.

Close

Maya: That's The Poly Brief for today. Every article and number is linked in the description.

Daniel: And a reminder: these odds are prices, not prophecies. Nothing here is investment advice. Eighty percent means that about one time in five, the meeting doesn't happen this year.

Maya: If you liked it, follow or subscribe, give us a rating, and send it to the Knicks fan in your life. They've had a rough week.

Daniel: We're here every morning. See you tomorrow!