[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":373},["ShallowReactive",2],{"ep-en-2026-11-01":3},{"show":4,"episode":27,"newer":367,"older":370,"langs":372},{"code":5,"rtl":6,"name":7,"tagline":8,"slug":9,"description":10,"disclaimer":15,"footer":16,"hosts":17,"links":20,"author":24,"cover":25,"cover_full":26},"en",false,"The Poly Brief","What the market thinks, and why","the-poly-brief",[11,12,13,14],"Every day, people around the world put money on what happens next: who wins an election, whether rates go up, whether a ceasefire holds. On the prediction market Polymarket, those prices are odds, and they move the moment something happens.","The Poly Brief picks the one or two biggest moves on the board each morning, shows where the odds stand and how they shifted, and answers the question that actually matters: why is the market betting this way? What happened in the news, what's driving it, and what could still flip it.","Maya and Daniel, ten minutes, every day. Every number is backed by reporting, and every source is linked in the episode notes.","Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prices, not prophecies. Independent, not affiliated with Polymarket.","For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket.","The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.",{"maya":18,"daniel":19},"Maya","Daniel",{"apple":21,"spotify":22,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fshow\u002F51LrWw79maXwAkhbpatzRO","","David Meir-Levy","\u002Fmedia\u002Fcovers\u002Fen-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002Fcovers\u002Fen-3000.jpg",{"date":28,"lang":5,"title":29,"summary":30,"headline":33,"date_label":34,"published_utc":35,"snapshot_utc":35,"snapshot_label":36,"poster":37,"poster_full":38,"links":39,"audio":42,"markets":44,"transcript":101,"sources":264},"2026-11-01","Nov 1: Two days to the midterms. A $134,000 bet before sunrise in Nebraska, and Kansas flips",[31,32],"Two days before the US midterms, the market gives Democrats 72.5% to win the Senate, up six points in a week, and 94.5% for the House. Why: a generic ballot around D+8, Trump's approval near 37%, and a record early vote. Then Nebraska, from Polymarket's homepage: Pete Ricketts jumped five points on Saturday, after a New York Times\u002FSiena poll had him up 49 to 43 over independent Dan Osborn. And most of that jump came from one account, about $134,000 in under an hour, around three in the morning New York time.","Then Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932: Adam Hamilton went from 38% to 52.5% in four days, after three polls in a row put him ahead of Senator Roger Marshall. Plus Who Called It on every October 31 deadline: Apple, Iran, the blockade, NATO and Russia.","Two days out. Kansas flips.","November 1, 2026","2026-11-01T06:56:21+00:00","November 1, 2026, 06:56 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-01\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-01\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":40,"spotify":41,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000799192899","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F2zU5oTwLHHA9zycZ5Leqxs",{"seconds":43},614,[45,60,75,89],{"title":46,"url":47,"volume_24h":48,"outcomes":49},"Which party will win the Senate in 2026?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",478896.35905900004,[50,55],{"label":51,"price":52,"change_1d":53,"change_1w":54},"Democratic Party",0.725,0.02,0.06,{"label":56,"price":57,"change_1d":58,"change_1w":59},"Republican Party",0.285,-0.01,-0.05,{"title":61,"url":62,"volume_24h":63,"outcomes":64},"Nebraska Senate Election Winner  ","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnebraska-senate-election-winner",766687.33629,[65,70],{"label":66,"price":67,"change_1d":68,"change_1w":69},"Pete Ricketts (R)",0.745,0.05,null,{"label":71,"price":72,"change_1d":73,"change_1w":74},"Independent",0.255,-0.04,0.01,{"title":76,"url":77,"volume_24h":78,"outcomes":79},"Kansas Senate Election Winner","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fkansas-senate-election-winner",148597.25119,[80,84],{"label":81,"price":82,"change_1d":74,"change_1w":83},"Adam Hamilton (D)",0.525,0.15,{"label":85,"price":86,"change_1d":87,"change_1w":88},"Roger Marshall (R)",0.485,0.005,-0.14,{"title":90,"url":91,"volume_24h":92,"outcomes":93},"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fbalance-of-power-2026-midterms",1671398.141401,[94,97],{"label":95,"price":96,"change_1d":74,"change_1w":68},"Democrats Sweep",0.715,{"label":98,"price":99,"change_1d":69,"change_1w":100},"R Senate, D House",0.235,-0.02,[102,104,106,108,110,112,114,116,118,120,122,124,126,128,130,132,134,136,138,140,142,144,146,148,150,152,154,156,158,160,162,164,166,168,170,172,174,176,178,180,182,184,186,188,190,192,194,196,198,200,202,204,206,208,210,212,214,216,218,220,222,224,226,228,230,232,234,236,238,240,242,244,246,248,250,252,254,256,258,260,262],{"scene":103},"Cold open",{"speaker":18,"text":105},"Kansas hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since nineteen thirty two. This morning, the market makes the Democrat the favorite.",{"speaker":19,"text":107},"And in Nebraska, one account put a hundred and thirty four thousand dollars on the Republican. At three in the morning.",{"speaker":18,"text":109},"This is The Poly Brief. It's Sunday, November first. I'm Maya.",{"speaker":19,"text":111},"And I'm Daniel. Every day we take the biggest moves on Polymarket, show you where the odds stand, and ask: why is the market betting this way?",{"speaker":18,"text":113},"Today: two days to the US midterms. The Senate, Nebraska, and the Kansas surprise. But first, October is over, and a lot of bets came due. Who called it?",{"scene":115},"Who Called It",{"speaker":19,"text":117},"Apple first. On Friday we said the market gave Apple sixty five percent to be the world's biggest company at the end of October.",{"speaker":19,"text":119},"At Friday's close, Apple was worth about five point zero three trillion dollars. NVIDIA, about four point nine three. Apple is number one. Market called it.",{"speaker":18,"text":121},"And Apple didn't even go up. It fell one percent. NVIDIA just fell four.",{"speaker":19,"text":123},"Then the Iran deadlines. On October eleventh, the market gave seventy seven and a half percent to no US strike on Iran through October thirty first. We found no strike reported. The market isn't formally settled yet, but it's at ninety nine.",{"speaker":19,"text":125},"The blockade: on October eighth, ending it by October thirty first was at twenty and a half. It didn't end. And a direct clash between NATO and Russia by October thirty first: eighteen and a half on October twenty third. We found none.",{"speaker":18,"text":127},"So four for four. Although in three of those, the market's call was that nothing happens. Which, to be fair, is usually a good bet.",{"scene":129},"Story 1: The Senate, two days out",{"speaker":18,"text":131},"Story one. The board. Which party wins the Senate. Democrats: seventy two and a half percent. Up two in a day, up six in a week. On October first, about sixty two.",{"speaker":19,"text":133},"The House: Democrats at ninety four and a half. And Democrats taking both chambers, seventy one and a half.",{"speaker":18,"text":135},"Remind me of the math.",{"speaker":19,"text":137},"Republicans hold fifty three seats, Democrats forty seven. Democrats need to gain four. At fifty fifty, Vice President JD Vance casts the deciding vote. So fifty isn't enough.",{"speaker":18,"text":139},"So why is the market betting Democrats?",{"speaker":19,"text":141},"Number one: the generic ballot. Which party do you want in Congress. The RealClearPolling average has Democrats ahead by about eight points.",{"speaker":19,"text":143},"Number two: the president's approval. The Silver Bulletin average had Donald Trump at about thirty seven percent on Friday.",{"speaker":19,"text":145},"Number three: early voting. Newsweek, citing the University of Florida's Election Lab, counts about forty nine and a half million ballots. That's a midterm record. In the states that report party, registered Democrats cast forty three percent, Republicans thirty two.",{"speaker":19,"text":147},"And the forecasters agree on the direction, not the size. The Silver Bulletin gives Democrats about seventy eight percent for the Senate. Decision Desk HQ, sixty.",{"speaker":18,"text":149},"And the map?",{"speaker":19,"text":151},"Michigan, seventy eight and a half for the Democrat. Ohio, Sherrod Brown, seventy three and a half. Texas, James Talarico, seventy and a half. Alaska, Mary Peltola, seventy two and a half. Maine, Troy Jackson, sixty seven and a half.",{"speaker":19,"text":153},"And Iowa goes the other way. Republican Ashley Hinson, fifty eight and a half.",{"speaker":18,"text":155},"Now Nebraska. It's on Polymarket's homepage this morning.",{"speaker":19,"text":157},"Republican Senator Pete Ricketts: seventy four and a half percent. Up five in a day. Against Dan Osborn, an independent, at twenty five and a half.",{"speaker":19,"text":159},"Osborn hasn't said which party he'd caucus with. In twenty twenty four, he came within about seven points of the other Nebraska senator, in a state Trump won easily.",{"speaker":18,"text":161},"So what happened on Saturday?",{"speaker":19,"text":163},"A new poll from The New York Times. Ricketts forty nine, Osborn forty three. Fifty five percent of voters said Osborn is more similar to Democrats. Only a third called him an independent.",{"speaker":19,"text":165},"On October sixth, a poll from YouGov had Osborn ahead by one. So that's a real change.",{"speaker":18,"text":167},"And the trades?",{"speaker":19,"text":169},"We opened them. Between about three and four in the morning, New York time, one account bought about a hundred and thirty four thousand dollars of Ricketts. It took four trades.",{"speaker":19,"text":171},"Before that, Ricketts was at about sixty nine and a half percent. By five in the morning, seventy four. Later in the morning, it touched seventy nine, and came back down.",{"speaker":18,"text":173},"Was the poll already out?",{"speaker":19,"text":175},"The earliest time stamp we found for it is six oh nine in the morning, Eastern. We don't know when the newspaper first put it online. So we can't tell you which came first.",{"speaker":18,"text":177},"So either someone reads the New York Times very early, or someone just really likes Nebraska.",{"speaker":18,"text":179},"The other side. What keeps Republicans in control?",{"speaker":19,"text":181},"First, the math. Fifty is a Republican Senate. Democrats need four flips, and Iowa is leaning the other way.",{"speaker":19,"text":183},"Second, Maine. A Fox News poll in October had Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tied, forty nine each. And in twenty twenty, Collins trailed in every poll, and won.",{"speaker":19,"text":185},"Third, the polls themselves. In twenty sixteen, the national average had Hillary Clinton up three. She won the popular vote by two, and lost the election.",{"speaker":18,"text":187},"So seventy two percent for a team that needs to win almost every coin flip.",{"speaker":19,"text":189},"And Alaska won't help anyone sleep. Its ranked choice count is on November eighteenth.",{"speaker":18,"text":191},"What to watch. Tuesday night, Eastern time. Seven o'clock, Georgia. Seven thirty, North Carolina and Ohio. Eight, Maine.",{"speaker":19,"text":193},"Nine o'clock, the big batch: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas and Michigan. And Alaska at one in the morning. We'll be back on Wednesday and Thursday to tell you who called it.",{"speaker":18,"text":195},"Bottom line: the market likes the Democrats' national numbers. But the Senate is fought state by state, and in Nebraska, one account just moved the line.",{"speaker":19,"text":197},"If you want election night without the four hour cable panel, hit follow. We'll do it in ten minutes.",{"scene":199},"Bridge",{"speaker":18,"text":201},"Daniel, why do you have a bag of candy on your desk?",{"speaker":19,"text":203},"Halloween. My neighbor's kid came over this morning to trade.",{"speaker":18,"text":205},"To trade?",{"speaker":19,"text":207},"She gave me all her candy corn. I gave her two chocolate bars. She walked away very happy.",{"speaker":18,"text":209},"So she sold you the worst candy at a premium.",{"speaker":19,"text":211},"Eight years old. Better trader than me.",{"speaker":18,"text":213},"Candy corn, though. Very Midwest. Which brings us to Kansas.",{"scene":215},"Story 2: Kansas",{"speaker":18,"text":217},"Story two. The board. Kansas Senate. Democrat Adam Hamilton, fifty two and a half percent. Republican Senator Roger Marshall, forty eight and a half.",{"speaker":19,"text":219},"On Wednesday, Hamilton was at about thirty eight. At the start of October, about twenty eight. Up fifteen in a week. It's a smaller market, about a hundred and fifty thousand dollars traded in the last day.",{"speaker":18,"text":221},"And the last time Kansas elected a Democrat to the Senate?",{"speaker":19,"text":223},"Nineteen thirty two. George McGill. And Hamilton isn't a politician. He's a pastor. His church is the largest United Methodist church in the country.",{"speaker":18,"text":225},"So why is the market betting on him?",{"speaker":19,"text":227},"Three polls in a few days. CNN and SSRS: Hamilton forty nine, Marshall forty five. Emerson College: about forty nine to forty five.",{"speaker":19,"text":229},"And on Friday, the Washington Post: fifty two to forty three. The market's high came on Friday, fifty four and a half.",{"speaker":19,"text":231},"This time we didn't find one big account. The biggest single bettor on Kansas put in about twelve thousand dollars, and that was against Hamilton. The move came from a lot of small trades.",{"speaker":18,"text":233},"And why now? It's Kansas.",{"speaker":19,"text":235},"The Hill points to the Iran war, the president's approval, and prices. Diesel in Kansas went from about three and a half dollars a gallon to about six dollars, according to AAA.",{"speaker":19,"text":237},"The Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ both call it a toss-up. And Trump is holding a rally for Marshall in Salina today. It was cancelled on Thursday, then put back on.",{"speaker":18,"text":239},"A rally that was cancelled and uncancelled in the same week. That's a toss-up all by itself.",{"speaker":18,"text":241},"The other side.",{"speaker":19,"text":243},"First, the Washington Post poll. The Post itself said it got fewer Republican respondents. A political scientist at Emporia State, Michael Smith, called the result pretty startling, and said it might be an outlier.",{"speaker":19,"text":245},"Second, just two weeks earlier, an InsiderAdvantage poll had Marshall ahead, forty eight to forty seven.",{"speaker":19,"text":247},"Third, Emerson has a Libertarian at about three percent. When a race is this close, where those voters land on Tuesday matters.",{"speaker":18,"text":249},"And ninety four years is a long streak. Fifty two and a half percent is barely better than a coin flip.",{"speaker":18,"text":251},"What to watch. Trump in Salina today. Polls close in Kansas at nine on Tuesday night, Eastern. And Smith says the result may not be known on election night.",{"speaker":18,"text":253},"Bottom line: Kansas went from underdog to slight favorite in three days, on polls alone. And that's exactly why the market is only slightly sure.",{"scene":255},"Close",{"speaker":18,"text":257},"That's The Poly Brief. Every article and number is linked in the description.",{"speaker":19,"text":259},"And a reminder: these odds are prices, not prophecies. Nothing here is investment advice. Seventy two and a half percent for Democrats in the Senate still means more than one time in four, Republicans keep it.",{"speaker":18,"text":261},"If you liked it, follow or subscribe, leave us a rating, and send it to the friend who will be refreshing results at one in the morning on Tuesday night.",{"speaker":19,"text":263},"Tomorrow, Apple reports its earnings. And then, election week. We're here every morning. See you tomorrow!",[265,270,273,278,283,287,291,295,300,304,309,313,317,321,325,329,334,338,342,347,352,356,360,363],{"outlet":266,"date":267,"title":268,"url":269},"StockAnalysis","2026-10-30","Apple stock price history","https:\u002F\u002Fstockanalysis.com\u002Fstocks\u002Faapl\u002Fhistory\u002F",{"outlet":266,"date":267,"title":271,"url":272},"NVIDIA stock price history","https:\u002F\u002Fstockanalysis.com\u002Fstocks\u002Fnvda\u002Fhistory\u002F",{"outlet":274,"date":275,"title":276,"url":277},"TUAW","2026-10-31","Apple Overtakes Nvidia as World's Most Valuable Company","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tuaw.com\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F31\u002Fapple-overtakes-nvidia-as-worlds-most-valuable-company",{"outlet":279,"date":280,"title":281,"url":282},"FOX19 (AP)","2026-10-08","Trump says US will not resume military strikes on Iran before midterm elections","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.fox19.com\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F08\u002Ftrump-says-us-will-not-resume-military-strikes-iran-before-midterm-elections\u002F",{"outlet":284,"date":267,"title":285,"url":286},"JINSA","Iran War Update: October 29-30, 2026","https:\u002F\u002Fjinsa.org\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2026\u002F10\u002FIran-War-Update-10.30.26.pdf",{"outlet":288,"date":275,"title":289,"url":290},"Fox News","US-Iran war live updates, Oct 31","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.foxnews.com\u002Flive-news\u002Fus-iran-war-trump-israel-strait-hormuz-10-31-26",{"outlet":292,"date":275,"title":293,"url":294},"CBS News","Trump says war 'going to end soon' as Qatar pushes for a U.S.-Iran deal","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cbsnews.com\u002Flive-updates\u002Firan-war-us-trump-diplomacy-threat-resume-attacks\u002F",{"outlet":296,"date":297,"title":298,"url":299},"Euromaidan Press","2026-10-26","Drones keep sinking ships off Romania and Bulgaria","https:\u002F\u002Feuromaidanpress.com\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F26\u002Fdrones-keep-sinking-ships-off-romania-and-bulgaria-french-and-us-patrol-planes-are-watching\u002F",{"outlet":301,"date":275,"title":302,"url":303},"Newsweek","Who will win the midterms? What polls show 3 days out","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.newsweek.com\u002Fwho-win-midterms-polls-3-days-12641376",{"outlet":305,"date":306,"title":307,"url":308},"USA Today Network (via Yahoo)","2026-10-28","Are Democrats winning the midterms? Current polls, predictions and odds","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.yahoo.com\u002Fnews\u002Fpolitics\u002Farticles\u002Fdemocrats-winning-midterms-current-polls-145338661.html",{"outlet":310,"date":267,"title":311,"url":312},"Silver Bulletin","How popular is Donald Trump?","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.natesilver.net\u002Fp\u002Ftrump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",{"outlet":314,"date":275,"title":315,"url":316},"Newsweek (via Yahoo)","Democrats leading in ballots as early voting surges to midterms record","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.yahoo.com\u002Fnews\u002Fpolitics\u002Farticles\u002Fdemocrats-leading-ballots-early-voting-121530613.html",{"outlet":318,"date":275,"title":319,"url":320},"The Hill (via AOL)","Ricketts leads independent candidate Osborn by 6 points in latest Nebraska Senate poll","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aol.com\u002Farticles\u002Fricketts-leads-independent-candidate-osborn-140352000.html",{"outlet":322,"date":275,"title":323,"url":324},"Political Wire","Ricketts Leads Osborn in Nebraska Senate Race","https:\u002F\u002Fpoliticalwire.com\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F31\u002Fricketts-leads-osborn-in-nebraska-senate-race-2\u002F",{"outlet":326,"date":28,"title":327,"url":328},"270toWin","Nebraska 2026 Senate polls","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.270towin.com\u002F2026-senate-polls\u002Fnebraska",{"outlet":330,"date":331,"title":332,"url":333},"Bangor Daily News","2026-10-22","Fox News poll shows Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tied less than 2 weeks out","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bangordailynews.com\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F22\u002Fpolitics\u002Ffox-news-poll-susan-collins-troy-jackson-tied\u002F",{"outlet":335,"date":331,"title":336,"url":337},"Colorado Politics","Polls have been wrong before. Could they be wrong again in 2026?","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.coloradopolitics.com\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F22\u002Fpolls-have-been-wrong-before-could-they-be-wrong-again-in-2026\u002F",{"outlet":339,"date":28,"title":340,"url":341},"Congress Countdown","Poll closing times","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.congresscountdown.com\u002Finfo\u002Fpoll-closing-times",{"outlet":343,"date":344,"title":345,"url":346},"FairVote","2026-10-13","Fact Sheet: Alaska's 2026 ranked choice voting elections","https:\u002F\u002Ffairvote.org\u002Fpress\u002Ffact-sheet-alaskas-2026-ranked-choice-voting-elections\u002F",{"outlet":348,"date":349,"title":350,"url":351},"National News Desk","2026-09-18","Poll: Democrat narrows gap in race for Kansas Republican's Senate seat","https:\u002F\u002Fnewschannel9.com\u002Fnews\u002Fnation-world\u002Fpoll-democrat-adam-hamilton-narrows-gap-in-race-for-kansas-republicans-roger-marshall-senate-seat-midterm-election",{"outlet":353,"date":267,"title":354,"url":355},"KWCH","New poll places Adam Hamilton as leader in race for U.S. Senate","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.kwch.com\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F31\u002Fnew-poll-places-adam-hamilton-leader-race-us-senate\u002F",{"outlet":357,"date":267,"title":358,"url":359},"The Hill (via Yahoo)","Hamilton holds slight lead over Marshall in Kansas Senate contest: Poll","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.yahoo.com\u002Fnews\u002Fpolitics\u002Farticles\u002Fhamilton-holds-slight-lead-over-130000068.html",{"outlet":301,"date":267,"title":361,"url":362},"Trump puts Iowa, Kansas back on campaign schedule","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.newsweek.com\u002Ftrump-cancels-kansas-rally-as-new-poll-shows-republican-trailing-democrat-12637635",{"outlet":364,"date":28,"title":365,"url":366},"Polymarket data API","Trades: Nebraska and Kansas Senate markets","https:\u002F\u002Fdata-api.polymarket.com\u002Ftrades",{"date":368,"title":369},"2026-11-02","Nov 2: Eisenkot hits 50, then meets Lieberman. And Texas on the eve of the midterms",{"date":267,"title":371},"Oct 30: Apple's crown, decided by tonight's close. And Israel's count is done, but the math isn't",[5],1793950845785]