[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":344},["ShallowReactive",2],{"ep-en-2026-10-11":3},{"show":4,"episode":27,"newer":338,"older":341,"langs":343},{"code":5,"rtl":6,"name":7,"tagline":8,"slug":9,"description":10,"disclaimer":15,"footer":16,"hosts":17,"links":20,"author":24,"cover":25,"cover_full":26},"en",false,"The Poly Brief","What the market thinks, and why","the-poly-brief",[11,12,13,14],"Every day, people around the world put money on what happens next: who wins an election, whether rates go up, whether a ceasefire holds. On the prediction market Polymarket, those prices are odds, and they move the moment something happens.","The Poly Brief picks the one or two biggest moves on the board each morning, shows where the odds stand and how they shifted, and answers the question that actually matters: why is the market betting this way? What happened in the news, what's driving it, and what could still flip it.","Maya and Daniel, ten minutes, every day. Every number is backed by reporting, and every source is linked in the episode notes.","Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prices, not prophecies. Independent, not affiliated with Polymarket.","For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket.","The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.",{"maya":18,"daniel":19},"Maya","Daniel",{"apple":21,"spotify":22,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fshow\u002F51LrWw79maXwAkhbpatzRO","","David Meir-Levy","\u002Fmedia\u002Fcovers\u002Fen-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002Fcovers\u002Fen-3000.jpg",{"date":28,"lang":5,"title":29,"summary":30,"headline":33,"date_label":34,"published_utc":35,"snapshot_utc":35,"snapshot_label":36,"poster":37,"poster_full":38,"links":39,"audio":42,"markets":44,"transcript":90,"sources":231},"2026-10-11","Oct 11: The Nobel nobody priced, Eisenkot's slide, and Iran's strange calm",[31,32],"Who called it? Nobody. The Nobel Peace Prize went to Navi Pillay, a name that wasn't even on Polymarket's list of seventy. Then Israel, sixteen days before the vote: a month ago traders gave Gadi Eisenkot about 55%. Now it's 41%, and Netanyahu is at 34.5. What moved it, and why the Arab-party math sits at the center.","Plus: Iran. Traders say the US won't strike before the end of October (77.5%), and also that the blockade isn't ending this year (only 42% it ends by December 31). How both can be true at once.","Eisenkot slips. Iran: calm, not peace.","October 11, 2026","2026-10-11T03:58:45+00:00","October 11, 2026, 03:58 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-11\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-11\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":40,"spotify":41,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416017","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F2pXSNPTzNFYT0aicBO7ezn",{"seconds":43},680,[45,60,75],{"title":46,"url":47,"volume_24h":48,"outcomes":49},"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwho-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election",409100.85957800003,[50,55],{"label":51,"price":52,"change_1d":53,"change_1w":54},"Gadi Eizenkot",0.4125,-0.012,-0.037,{"label":56,"price":57,"change_1d":58,"change_1w":59},"Benjamin Netanyahu",0.345,-0.01,-0.02,{"title":61,"url":62,"volume_24h":63,"outcomes":64},"US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt",773213.324007,[65,70],{"label":66,"price":67,"change_1d":68,"change_1w":69},"October 12",0.9565,0.014,0.0965,{"label":71,"price":72,"change_1d":73,"change_1w":74},"October 15",0.915,0.01,0.105,{"title":76,"url":77,"volume_24h":78,"outcomes":79},"US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080",386814.5292419999,[80,85],{"label":81,"price":82,"change_1d":83,"change_1w":84},"March 31",0.645,-0.05,-0.065,{"label":86,"price":87,"change_1d":88,"change_1w":89},"December 31",0.4205,-0.051,-0.1075,[91,93,95,97,99,101,103,105,107,109,111,113,115,117,119,121,123,125,127,129,131,133,135,137,139,141,143,145,147,149,151,153,155,157,159,161,163,165,167,169,171,173,175,177,179,181,183,185,187,189,191,193,195,197,199,201,203,205,207,209,211,213,215,217,219,221,223,225,227,229],{"scene":92},"Cold open",{"speaker":18,"text":94},"A month ago, the market gave Gadi Eisenkot about a fifty five percent chance of being Israel's next prime minister.",{"speaker":19,"text":96},"This morning, forty one. And the gap with Netanyahu went from twenty seven points to under seven.",{"speaker":18,"text":98},"This is The Poly Brief. It's Sunday, October eleventh. I'm Maya.",{"speaker":19,"text":100},"And I'm Daniel. Every day we take the biggest moves on Polymarket, show you where the odds are, and ask: why is the market betting this way?",{"speaker":18,"text":102},"Today: Israel, sixteen days before the election. Then Iran, where traders say two things that sound like a contradiction. But first, we owe you a result.",{"scene":104},"Who called it?",{"speaker":18,"text":106},"Who called it? The Nobel Peace Prize. On Wednesday we told you the favorite was Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, at fifteen percent. On Friday morning, Yulia Navalnaya, at nineteen.",{"speaker":19,"text":108},"And the winner was Navi Pillay. A South African judge. She wasn't fifteen percent. She wasn't five. She wasn't on the board at all.",{"speaker":18,"text":110},"Wait, at all?",{"speaker":19,"text":112},"Polymarket listed about seventy names. Not hers. She was paid out through the catch-all contract, \"any other person or organization\". About thirty nine thousand dollars traded there, in a market of more than thirty two million.",{"speaker":18,"text":114},"So thirty two million dollars of collective wisdom, and the answer was... other.",{"speaker":19,"text":116},"Other. And in fairness, on Friday we told you Navalnaya. So we're not exactly in a position to laugh.",{"speaker":19,"text":118},"And that overnight Navalnaya spike? It went as high as seventy cents for a few minutes in the middle of the night, then fell back. Still no explanation. Last year a late spike pointed at the winner. This year it pointed at the wrong person.",{"speaker":18,"text":120},"So this year, the insiders were outsiders.",{"speaker":18,"text":122},"Who is she, quickly?",{"speaker":19,"text":124},"Pillay was a judge at the Rwanda tribunal and at the International Criminal Court, then the UN's human rights chief. Most recently she chaired the UN commission that accused Israel of genocide in Gaza. The committee gave the prize for promoting peace and international law. Israel's government and Netanyahu's office attacked the choice harshly. The committee chair said the prize doesn't endorse the genocide finding.",{"speaker":18,"text":126},"What it tells us: a market can only price the names it lists. The committee picked from outside the list.",{"speaker":19,"text":128},"Note to self. Next year, read the bottom of the board too.",{"scene":130},"Story 1: Israel",{"speaker":18,"text":132},"The board. Who will be Israel's prime minister after the election. Gadi Eisenkot, forty one percent. Benjamin Netanyahu, thirty four and a half. Naftali Bennett, eleven and a half.",{"speaker":19,"text":134},"When we covered this last Wednesday, Eisenkot was at forty eight. A month ago, fifty five. Netanyahu was at twenty seven and a half a month ago. About forty five million dollars have traded on this market.",{"speaker":18,"text":136},"So Eisenkot is still the favorite. But a much weaker one.",{"speaker":19,"text":138},"Right. And the biggest single drop has a time stamp. Wednesday evening, between ten at night and one in the morning, Israel time, Eisenkot fell from about forty seven to about forty three.",{"speaker":18,"text":140},"What happened Wednesday evening?",{"speaker":19,"text":142},"A Channel Thirteen poll aired. Likud and Eisenkot's party, Yashar, tied at twenty seats each. And Netanyahu's bloc at fifty five, against fifty for the opposition. The timing matches. Nobody has said that's why the price moved, but it's the obvious suspect.",{"speaker":18,"text":144},"And why does the market lean this way? Give me the reasons.",{"speaker":19,"text":146},"Reason one: the math without the Arab parties. In almost every poll, the opposition parties, without the Arab parties, sit somewhere between fifty and fifty five seats. You need sixty one. And Eisenkot says he won't build a government that depends on the Arab parties as they stand today.",{"speaker":19,"text":148},"Reason two: Channel Thirteen has now shown Netanyahu's bloc ahead three times in a row. Fifty four to fifty two in mid September, again at the end of September, and fifty five to fifty this week.",{"speaker":19,"text":150},"Reason three: the question of who should actually be prime minister. In Maariv's poll on Friday, Eisenkot beats Netanyahu on who's more suitable, forty six to forty. But when asked who should be prime minister after the election, Netanyahu leads, thirty eight to twenty four. And fifty nine percent oppose an Arab party in the coalition.",{"speaker":18,"text":152},"Hm. So Eisenkot wins the popularity question and loses the coalition question.",{"speaker":19,"text":154},"That's the market's bet, in one sentence.",{"speaker":18,"text":156},"Quick background for anyone just joining.",{"speaker":19,"text":158},"Eisenkot is a former IDF chief of staff. He founded Yashar last year, and it's been the largest or tied for the largest party in most polls. The election is on Tuesday, October twenty seventh. And this market only pays when a prime minister is actually sworn in, not on election night.",{"speaker":18,"text":160},"So anyone holding this contract should pack a sandwich. Israeli coalitions take a while.",{"speaker":18,"text":162},"Now the other side. What does Eisenkot still have?",{"speaker":19,"text":164},"First, the other polls. Zman Yisrael, the Times of Israel's Hebrew site, on Thursday: Yashar twenty four, Likud twenty. The anti-Netanyahu parties fifty five, Netanyahu's bloc fifty one. Maariv: a tie at fifty two.",{"speaker":18,"text":166},"Wait. So in Channel Thirteen's poll Netanyahu leads, and in Zman Yisrael's Eisenkot leads?",{"speaker":19,"text":168},"Every channel has its own country. On the twenty seventh we find out which one we live in.",{"speaker":19,"text":170},"And no poll we used gives Netanyahu's bloc sixty one.",{"speaker":19,"text":172},"Second, a plan. This weekend, Eisenkot told Yedioth that if neither side reaches sixty one, he'll bring his candidacy to a vote in the Knesset, on what he calls the Zionist majority. And the Joint List said it's willing to give an anti-Netanyahu government a safety net from outside, with conditions.",{"speaker":19,"text":174},"Third, the news cycle. On Thursday, Netanyahu's former military secretary, Avi Gil, alleged an attempt to change the time of a call in the records of October seventh. Netanyahu denies it. The opposition is demanding a criminal investigation. We haven't seen a poll yet that measures its effect.",{"speaker":18,"text":176},"What to watch. Election broadcasts start on Tuesday. Polls can be published until October twenty third. Then four days without a single poll, and everyone has to guess on their own, like it's the nineties. The vote is on the twenty seventh, and we'll come back the next morning to see who called it.",{"speaker":18,"text":178},"Bottom line: the market still has Eisenkot in front. But it's pricing the morning after the election, not the night of it. And that morning looks harder for him than it did a month ago.",{"speaker":19,"text":180},"And if you want those last sixteen days in ten minutes a morning, tap follow. That's all it takes.",{"scene":182},"Story 2: Iran",{"speaker":18,"text":184},"Story two. Iran, and two boards that seem to disagree. Board one: will the US hold off on striking Iran through October thirty first? Seventy seven and a half percent. A week ago, sixty two and a half. A month ago, forty five and a half.",{"speaker":19,"text":186},"Board two: will the US announce the end of its naval blockade of Iran by December thirty first? Forty two percent. A week ago, fifty three. A month ago, sixty. And by the end of October? Thirteen and a half. On Thursday, when we covered it, that was twenty and a half.",{"speaker":18,"text":188},"So the war gets quieter, and the blockade gets tighter? How does that work?",{"speaker":19,"text":190},"It's in the fine print. The first market isn't really about a ceasefire. There's no formal one in force. It asks one thing: will a US air or missile strike hit Iranian land? Hitting ships at sea doesn't count. So the blockade can go on, and the market still says yes.",{"speaker":18,"text":192},"Okay. And why is the market so confident about no strikes?",{"speaker":19,"text":194},"Reason one, and it has a time stamp too. Thursday evening, Trump posted: \"we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections\". That's November third. Within the hour, the October thirty first contract jumped from about seventy to about eighty.",{"speaker":19,"text":196},"And in the same post, he wrote that the blockade \"will remain in full force and effect\". That's reason one for the second board, too.",{"speaker":18,"text":198},"One post, two markets.",{"speaker":19,"text":200},"Reason two: the blockade is still being enforced, and loudly. On Thursday, the Treasury sanctioned seventeen vessels in Iran's shadow fleet. On Saturday, the US military said a fighter jet disabled a cargo ship that had left an Iranian port, in the Gulf of Oman. No one on board was hurt.",{"speaker":19,"text":202},"Reason three: the two sides want things in a different order. Washington wants the nuclear issue first. Tehran wants the blockade lifted first. And for this market, only an official, general end counts. A partial exemption doesn't.",{"speaker":18,"text":204},"And the drop overnight? Down five points since yesterday.",{"speaker":19,"text":206},"Most of it happened on Saturday afternoon and evening. We looked for the one piece of news that set it off, and didn't find it. It looks like a slow pile up of everything I just said.",{"speaker":18,"text":208},"Now the other side. For both boards.",{"speaker":19,"text":210},"On strikes: according to the New York Times, the Pentagon prepared options for about three days of intense strikes. No decision was made. Axios reported that Central Command was told to finish preparations. And a third US aircraft carrier could arrive in the region by late October. That would be the first time since two thousand three. Trump's promise covers only the time before the midterms.",{"speaker":19,"text":212},"On the blockade: talks aren't dead. Iran's foreign minister said Tehran is reviewing the American response and will answer within days. One announcement from Washington would settle that market in a minute.",{"speaker":18,"text":214},"And oil?",{"speaker":19,"text":216},"Brent jumped to about a hundred and five dollars on Thursday morning on the strike reports, and slipped to a hundred and three after Trump's post.",{"speaker":18,"text":218},"What to watch. Iran's reply, which could come any day. The third carrier. And November third, when the promise runs out. We'll come back on November first to see who called it.",{"speaker":18,"text":220},"Bottom line: traders are betting on a quiet sky and a closed sea. A pause, not a peace.",{"scene":222},"Close",{"speaker":18,"text":224},"That's The Poly Brief for today. Every poll, article and number is linked in the description.",{"speaker":19,"text":226},"And a reminder: these odds are prices, not prophecies. Nothing here is investment advice. And if you need proof, ask the Nobel market. Its favorite was nineteen percent, and the winner wasn't even on the list.",{"speaker":18,"text":228},"If this was useful, follow or subscribe, give us a rating, and send it to the friend who keeps asking you who's going to win on the twenty seventh.",{"speaker":19,"text":230},"We're here every morning. See you tomorrow!",[232,237,241,245,250,254,258,262,266,269,274,278,282,286,290,294,297,300,303,307,309,311,314,317,321,325,328,331,334],{"outlet":233,"date":234,"title":235,"url":236},"Norwegian Nobel Committee","2026-10-09","Nobel Peace Prize for 2026 (press release)","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nobelpeaceprize.org\u002Fpress\u002Fpress-releases\u002Fnobel-peace-prize-for-2026",{"outlet":238,"date":234,"title":239,"url":240},"CBS News","Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to Navanethem 'Navi' Pillay, former International Criminal Court judge","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cbsnews.com\u002Fnews\u002Fnobel-peace-prize-2026-navanethem-navi-pillay-south-africa\u002F",{"outlet":242,"date":234,"title":243,"url":244},"Times of Israel","Navi Pillay, head of UN commission that accused Israel of genocide, wins Nobel Peace Prize","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Fnavi-pillay-head-of-un-commission-that-accused-israel-of-genocide-wins-nobel-peace-prize\u002F",{"outlet":246,"date":247,"title":248,"url":249},"Jerusalem Post","2026-10-10","Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump criticize Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Navi Pillay","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jpost.com\u002Fisrael-news\u002Farticle-911248",{"outlet":251,"date":234,"title":252,"url":253},"The National","'Why would you need courage to speak the truth': Navi Pillay wins Nobel Peace Prize","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.thenationalnews.com\u002Fnews\u002Feurope\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F09\u002Fnavi-pillay-wins-nobel-peace-prize-for-promoting-international-law\u002F",{"outlet":255,"date":247,"title":256,"url":257},"Cointribune","Nobel Peace Prize: Navi Pillay Catches Polymarket Off Guard","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cointribune.com\u002Fen\u002Fnobel-peace-prize-navi-pillay-defies-polymarket-bets",{"outlet":259,"date":234,"title":260,"url":261},"Bitcoin.com News","Polymarket's $32M Nobel Market Didn't Anticipate the Peace Prize Winner","https:\u002F\u002Fnews.bitcoin.com\u002Figaming\u002Fpolymarket-32m-nobel-market-didnt-anticipate-peace-prize-winner\u002F",{"outlet":263,"date":247,"title":264,"url":265},"Wikipedia","Navi Pillay","https:\u002F\u002Fen.wikipedia.org\u002Fwiki\u002FNavi_Pillay",{"outlet":267,"date":28,"title":268,"url":47},"Polymarket","Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (rules)",{"outlet":270,"date":271,"title":272,"url":273},"Haaretz","2026-10-07","Poll: Netanyahu Bloc Tops Eisenkot's by 5 Seats, Neither Secure Majority","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.haaretz.com\u002Fisrael-news\u002Felections\u002F2026-10-07\u002Fty-article\u002F.premium\u002Fpoll-netanyahu-bloc-tops-eisenkots-by-5-seats-neither-secure-majority\u002F000001a1-1795-d6bf-abe5-97dd19930000",{"outlet":242,"date":275,"title":276,"url":277},"2026-10-08","ToI poll: Anti-Netanyahu bloc regains lead but both camps fall short of majority 19 days ahead of vote","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Ftoi-poll-anti-netanyahu-bloc-regains-lead-but-both-camps-fall-short-19-days-ahead-of-vote\u002F",{"outlet":279,"date":234,"title":280,"url":281},"Jerusalem Post (Maariv poll)","Coalition, opposition tie at 52 seats as Netanyahu's Likud gets closer to Eisenkot's Yashar - poll","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jpost.com\u002Fisrael-election-2026\u002Farticle-911139",{"outlet":270,"date":283,"title":284,"url":285},"2026-10-01","Opposition Bloc's Boycott of Arab Parties Hands Netanyahu's Bloc Edge, New Poll Shows","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.haaretz.com\u002Fisrael-news\u002Felections\u002F2026-10-01\u002Fty-article\u002Fnew-poll-boycott-of-arab-parties-hands-netanyahus-bloc-edge-over-opponents\u002F000001a0-f628-da3f-a7fa-f7ed60d40000",{"outlet":242,"date":287,"title":288,"url":289},"2026-09-17","In turnaround, TV poll shows Netanyahu's bloc slightly ahead of opposition","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Fin-turnaround-tv-poll-shows-netanyahus-bloc-slightly-ahead-of-opposition\u002F",{"outlet":291,"date":247,"title":292,"url":293},"Ynetnews","Eisenkot vows to challenge Netanyahu for power after election, even without Knesset majority","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.ynetnews.com\u002Farticle\u002Fbjym0xoofx",{"outlet":242,"date":247,"title":295,"url":296},"Joint Arab List says willing to provide safety net for any anti-Netanyahu coalition","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Fjoint-list-says-it-will-provide-safety-net-for-any-anti-netanyahu-coalition-report\u002F",{"outlet":242,"date":234,"title":298,"url":299},"'Treason': Opposition demands criminal probe of PM, after ex-military aide's Oct. 7 revelations","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Ftreason-opposition-demands-criminal-probe-of-pm-after-ex-military-aides-oct-7-revelations\u002F",{"outlet":291,"date":247,"title":301,"url":302},"Gantz refuses to quit election race as Netanyahu brands Winter 'Bennett 2'","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.ynetnews.com\u002Farticle\u002Fr1x9uxoome",{"outlet":246,"date":304,"title":305,"url":306},"2026-07-13","Israel election timeline explainer","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jpost.com\u002Fisrael-news\u002Fpolitics-and-diplomacy\u002Farticle-902333",{"outlet":267,"date":28,"title":308,"url":62},"US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? (rules)",{"outlet":267,"date":28,"title":310,"url":77},"US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? (rules)",{"outlet":238,"date":275,"title":312,"url":313},"Trump promises not to resume strikes before midterm elections (live updates)","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cbsnews.com\u002Flive-updates\u002Firan-war-nuclear-donald-trump-vance-rubio-strait-of-hormuz\u002F",{"outlet":238,"date":247,"title":315,"url":316},"Iran war, US elections, Saudi Arabia, Houthis (live updates)","https:\u002F\u002Fcbsnews.com\u002Flive-updates\u002Firan-war-trump-us-elections-saudi-arabia-yemen-houthis",{"outlet":318,"date":28,"title":319,"url":320},"Times of Israel (Reuters)","US military says it disabled cargo vessel trying to bypass Iran blockade","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Fliveblog_entry\u002Fus-military-says-it-disabled-cargo-vessel-trying-to-bypass-iran-blockade\u002F",{"outlet":322,"date":234,"title":323,"url":324},"Gulf News","US draws up options for new Iran strikes despite Trump poll pledge","https:\u002F\u002Fgulfnews.com\u002Fworld\u002Famericas\u002Fus-draws-up-options-for-new-iran-strikes-despite-trump-poll-pledge-1.500704338",{"outlet":322,"date":247,"title":326,"url":327},"US-Iran peace efforts continue; Saudi Arabia reports 3 killed in Riyadh airport attack","https:\u002F\u002Fgulfnews.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmena\u002Fus-iran-war-trump-rules-out-strikes-before-midterms-as-tehran-weighs-hormuz-plan-iranian-spies-eye-us-bases-in-germany-1.500704037",{"outlet":251,"date":275,"title":329,"url":330},"Diplomacy or war? US-Iran deadlock reaches fork in the road","https:\u002F\u002Fthenationalnews.com\u002Fnews\u002Fmena\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F08\u002Fattempt-to-break-us-iran-diplomatic-deadlock-up-against-growing-appetite-for-major-war",{"outlet":242,"date":234,"title":332,"url":333},"US said preparing options to renew Iran war, including plan for 3 days of intense strikes","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Fus-said-preparing-options-to-renew-iran-war-including-plan-for-3-days-of-intense-strikes\u002F",{"outlet":335,"date":234,"title":336,"url":337},"Trading Economics","Brent crude oil","https:\u002F\u002Ftradingeconomics.com\u002Fcommodity\u002Fbrent-crude-oil",{"date":339,"title":340},"2026-10-12","Oct 12: Le Pen slips, Philippe gets a TV bump, and the states that want to pause AI",{"date":234,"title":342},"Oct 9: The Nobel favorite nobody can explain, and Brazil's runoff",[5],1793950845972]