[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":355},["ShallowReactive",2],{"ep-en-2026-10-07":3},{"show":4,"episode":27,"newer":349,"older":352,"langs":354},{"code":5,"rtl":6,"name":7,"tagline":8,"slug":9,"description":10,"disclaimer":15,"footer":16,"hosts":17,"links":20,"author":24,"cover":25,"cover_full":26},"en",false,"The Poly Brief","What the market thinks, and why","the-poly-brief",[11,12,13,14],"Every day, people around the world put money on what happens next: who wins an election, whether rates go up, whether a ceasefire holds. On the prediction market Polymarket, those prices are odds, and they move the moment something happens.","The Poly Brief picks the one or two biggest moves on the board each morning, shows where the odds stand and how they shifted, and answers the question that actually matters: why is the market betting this way? What happened in the news, what's driving it, and what could still flip it.","Maya and Daniel, ten minutes, every day. Every number is backed by reporting, and every source is linked in the episode notes.","Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prices, not prophecies. Independent, not affiliated with Polymarket.","For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket.","The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.",{"maya":18,"daniel":19},"Maya","Daniel",{"apple":21,"spotify":22,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fshow\u002F51LrWw79maXwAkhbpatzRO","","David Meir-Levy","\u002Fmedia\u002Fcovers\u002Fen-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002Fcovers\u002Fen-3000.jpg",{"date":28,"lang":5,"title":29,"summary":30,"headline":33,"date_label":34,"published_utc":35,"snapshot_utc":35,"snapshot_label":36,"poster":37,"poster_full":38,"links":39,"audio":42,"markets":44,"transcript":75,"sources":196},"2026-10-07","Oct 7: Israel's race tightens, and the Nobel nobody can call",[31,32],"Three weeks before Israel votes, Gadi Eisenkot is the market's favorite to be the next prime minister at 48%. But Benjamin Netanyahu is up five points in a week, to 36.5%, and Naftali Bennett is fading. What the polls say, why the coalition math matters more than who finishes first, and why a caretaker prime minister doesn't count.","Plus: the Nobel Peace Prize is announced on Friday. Sudan's volunteer Emergency Response Rooms lead at just 15%. Why this is one of the hardest markets to call, and what happened the last time traders knew too early.","Israel tightens. The Nobel is wide open.","October 7, 2026","2026-10-06T19:59:56+00:00","October 6, 2026, 19:59 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-07\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-07\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":40,"spotify":41,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416077","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F7lICVbLlerdhR0Sv4oO4ue",{"seconds":43},630,[45,60],{"title":46,"url":47,"volume_24h":48,"outcomes":49},"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwho-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election",524228.56203100004,[50,55],{"label":51,"price":52,"change_1d":53,"change_1w":54},"Gadi Eizenkot",0.4815,0.0065,0.069,{"label":56,"price":57,"change_1d":58,"change_1w":59},"Benjamin Netanyahu",0.365,0.01,0.05,{"title":61,"url":62,"volume_24h":63,"outcomes":64},"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139",294779.57715399994,[65,70],{"label":66,"price":67,"change_1d":68,"change_1w":69},"Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms",0.1525,0.006,-0.011,{"label":71,"price":72,"change_1d":73,"change_1w":74},"Mykola Kuleba",0.085,-0.01,null,[76,78,80,82,84,86,88,90,92,94,96,98,100,102,104,106,108,110,112,114,116,118,120,122,124,126,128,130,132,134,136,138,140,142,144,146,148,150,152,154,156,158,160,162,164,166,168,170,172,174,176,178,180,182,184,186,188,190,192,194],{"scene":77},"Cold open",{"speaker":18,"text":79},"Three weeks before Israel votes, the market's favorite for prime minister is not the man who has the job.",{"speaker":19,"text":81},"Gadi Eisenkot, forty eight percent. Benjamin Netanyahu, thirty six and a half. A month ago, that gap was twenty one points. Today, it's under twelve.",{"speaker":18,"text":83},"This is The Poly Brief. It's Wednesday, October seventh. I'm Maya.",{"speaker":19,"text":85},"And I'm Daniel. Every day we take the biggest moves on Polymarket, show you where the odds are, and ask: why is the market betting this way?",{"speaker":18,"text":87},"Today is also three years since the October seventh attack. It's a heavy day in Israel, and it's part of the backdrop of this election.",{"speaker":18,"text":89},"So today: who will run Israel after October twenty seventh. And then, the Nobel Peace Prize, announced on Friday, in a market where nobody is above fifteen percent.",{"scene":91},"Story 1: Israel",{"speaker":18,"text":93},"The board. Who will be Israel's prime minister after the next election. Gadi Eisenkot: forty eight percent. Up about three and a half points from a week ago, but a little lower than a month ago.",{"speaker":19,"text":95},"Netanyahu: thirty six and a half. Up seven points from a month ago. And Naftali Bennett fell from about fourteen and a half on Saturday, to nine and a half. About forty four million dollars have traded on this one.",{"speaker":18,"text":97},"Okay, quick reminder for anyone just joining. Who is Eisenkot?",{"speaker":19,"text":99},"He was the army's chief of staff, from twenty fifteen to twenty nineteen. He entered politics in twenty twenty two, sat in the war cabinet after October seventh, and lost his son Gal in Gaza. A year ago he founded his own party, Yashar. His main campaign promise: a state commission of inquiry into October seventh.",{"speaker":18,"text":101},"And the important detail about this market.",{"speaker":19,"text":103},"Right. It's not about who wins the most seats. It's about who is actually sworn in as prime minister. And a caretaker prime minister doesn't count. Netanyahu staying on as caretaker during a deadlock is not a win for Netanyahu in this market.",{"speaker":18,"text":105},"Hm. That changes things. So why is Eisenkot the favorite?",{"speaker":19,"text":107},"Reason one: he leads his own race. In the N12 poll published yesterday, his party, Yashar, gets twenty three seats. Likud gets twenty one. Kan had the same numbers a week earlier.",{"speaker":19,"text":109},"Reason two: the blocs. In that N12 poll, the opposition parties get fifty four seats and Netanyahu's coalition gets forty nine. Maariv's poll last week had it closer, fifty three to fifty one, but the same direction.",{"speaker":19,"text":111},"Reason three: he's the opposition's strongest name against Netanyahu. In the N12 head to head, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu, forty one to thirty eight. Bennett, in the same poll, trails Netanyahu, thirty seven to forty one.",{"speaker":18,"text":113},"And that's Bennett's problem, right? He was supposed to be the challenger.",{"speaker":19,"text":115},"Exactly. Bennett and Yair Lapid run together, on a list called Together. Back in May they were polling around twenty five seats. Now it's ten to thirteen. And on September twenty sixth, five opposition leaders signed a pact to stop attacking each other. It doesn't name a candidate for prime minister. But the market is reading the polls, and treating this as a two man race.",{"speaker":19,"text":117},"And reason four, the Netanyahu side of the move. A Channel thirteen poll last week, and a Times of Israel poll, had his bloc ahead. And Ofer Winter's new right wing party fell below the threshold in a Channel twelve poll this week. Winter had been pulling votes away from Likud. If they go back, Netanyahu gains.",{"speaker":18,"text":119},"And all of this in a week where security was back on top of the news.",{"speaker":19,"text":121},"Yes. On September thirtieth, a copilot on a flydubai flight to Tel Aviv tried to crash the plane. Passengers subdued him, it landed in Saudi Arabia, and everyone survived. Bennett and Eisenkot both went after the government over it. And in Maariv's poll, sixty seven percent of Israelis said they're worried about another attack on the scale of October seventh.",{"speaker":18,"text":123},"Now the other side. What could keep Netanyahu in the job?",{"speaker":19,"text":125},"The number sixty one. That's a majority in the Knesset. And in every recent poll we checked, neither bloc gets there. Not Netanyahu's, and not the opposition without the Arab parties.",{"speaker":19,"text":127},"Which brings us to the fight of the week. The elections committee disqualified the Arab parties, Ra'am and the Joint List. On Friday, the Supreme Court put them back on the ballot, nine justices, unanimously.",{"speaker":18,"text":129},"And Likud is using that.",{"speaker":19,"text":131},"Directly. On Monday, Eisenkot challenged Netanyahu to a TV debate. Likud said no, and answered: the government you'll build with Mansour Abbas, Ahmad Tibi, Yair Golan and Avigdor Liberman. We won't let that happen. Eisenkot, for his part, says any partner has to recognize Hamas as a terror organization, and denies promising Ra'am a seat in government.",{"speaker":19,"text":133},"And the head to head isn't settled. Maariv had Netanyahu ahead of Eisenkot, forty seven to forty one. Kan had them almost tied. So depending on which poll you trust, this is a lot closer than forty eight to thirty six.",{"speaker":18,"text":135},"And after election day, it's not over.",{"speaker":19,"text":137},"Not even close. The president consults every party and picks whoever has the best chance to build a coalition. That person gets twenty eight days, plus fourteen more. If that fails, someone else gets a shot. And President Herzog has said he'll do everything to avoid another election.",{"speaker":18,"text":139},"What to watch. October twenty third, the ban on publishing polls begins. Tuesday, October twenty seventh, election day. Then the president's consultations, in November.",{"speaker":18,"text":141},"Bottom line: the market sees Eisenkot as the most likely next prime minister, but not as the likely one. Forty eight percent is a coin flip with a slight lean. And we'll be back the morning after the election, to see who called it.",{"speaker":19,"text":143},"And if you don't want to miss that one, now's a good moment to hit follow.",{"scene":145},"Story 2: Nobel",{"speaker":18,"text":147},"Story two. The Nobel Peace Prize. Friday, eleven in the morning in Oslo, noon in Israel.",{"speaker":19,"text":149},"The favorite: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, at fifteen percent. A month ago they were at twenty one and a half. Then Mykola Kuleba at eight and a half, Save the Children at about eight, and the Committee to Protect Journalists and the International Court of Justice, both around five and a half.",{"speaker":18,"text":151},"Fifteen percent. For the favorite. That's not a favorite, that's a guess.",{"speaker":19,"text":153},"Pretty much. There are two hundred eighty seven nominees this year. Two hundred eight people and seventy nine organizations. Around twenty six million dollars have traded on this market.",{"speaker":18,"text":155},"So who are the Emergency Response Rooms?",{"speaker":19,"text":157},"Volunteers. Thousands of them, inside Sudan's civil war, which started in April twenty twenty three. Doctors, teachers, students, coordinating through group chats. That's where rooms comes from. They run kitchens, shelters and medical care where almost nobody else can reach.",{"speaker":19,"text":159},"Why the market likes them. Reason one: they were already a front runner last year, and lost. Then they won two other big prizes, the Right Livelihood Award and the Rafto Prize.",{"speaker":19,"text":161},"Reason two: the experts. Every year, the head of the Peace Research Institute Oslo publishes a shortlist. This year's: first, Kuleba together with Save the Children. Second, the Emergency Response Rooms. Then the journalists' committee, the two international courts, and the International Space Station.",{"speaker":18,"text":163},"Wait. The space station?",{"speaker":19,"text":165},"Twenty five years of rivals working together in orbit. And look at the market: its top five is basically that list. Traders don't know anything the committee knows. They're reading the same expert.",{"speaker":18,"text":167},"And Kuleba?",{"speaker":19,"text":169},"Ukraine's former children's rights commissioner. Today he runs Save Ukraine, which brings back Ukrainian children taken to Russia. And here's a nice rules detail. If he wins together with Save the Children, the market pays out on Kuleba. A person plus an organization resolves to the person.",{"speaker":19,"text":171},"One more mover. Hussam Abu Safiya, director of a hospital in northern Gaza, jumped three and a half points in a day, to about five. He's been held by Israel since December twenty twenty four. Amnesty says without charges, Israel says he was involved in terror activity. We didn't find any news that explains the jump.",{"speaker":18,"text":173},"So what makes this market so hard?",{"speaker":19,"text":175},"Secrecy. Five committee members, appointed by Norway's parliament. And the nominations stay sealed for fifty years. Nobody outside the room really knows.",{"speaker":19,"text":177},"Except, last year, maybe somebody did. The night before the announcement, María Corina Machado jumped on Polymarket from under four percent to nearly seventy three. Then she won.",{"speaker":18,"text":179},"Oof. That's not a hunch.",{"speaker":19,"text":181},"The Nobel Institute's director called it highly likely espionage. In January they concluded it was most likely a digital breach, but couldn't say who was behind it. So the real signal last year wasn't the favorite. It was a sudden spike, hours before the announcement.",{"speaker":18,"text":183},"What to watch: any sharp overnight move on Thursday night. Then Friday at noon, Israel time. And the rest of Nobel week: chemistry today, literature tomorrow, economics on Monday.",{"speaker":18,"text":185},"Bottom line: the market has a favorite, but fifteen percent means that most of the time, it's someone else. We'll tell you on Saturday who called it.",{"scene":187},"Close",{"speaker":18,"text":189},"And that's The Poly Brief for today. Every poll, article and number from this episode is linked in the description.",{"speaker":19,"text":191},"And a reminder: these odds are prices, not prophecies. Nothing here is investment advice. Forty eight percent means it doesn't happen slightly more often than it does.",{"speaker":18,"text":193},"If this helped you make sense of the news, follow or subscribe, leave a rating, and send it to someone who's been arguing about polls all week.",{"speaker":19,"text":195},"We're here every morning. See you tomorrow!",[197,201,206,211,216,220,225,230,234,239,243,248,252,257,261,265,270,274,277,281,284,287,291,295,297,302,305,310,315,320,324,329,334,339,344],{"outlet":198,"date":199,"title":200,"url":47},"Polymarket","2026-10-06","Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (rules)",{"outlet":202,"date":203,"title":204,"url":205},"JNS","2026-07-17","Knesset votes to dissolve, sets Oct. 27 election date","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jns.org\u002Fnews\u002Fisrael-news\u002Fknesset-votes-to-dissolve-formally-sets-oct-27-election-date",{"outlet":207,"date":208,"title":209,"url":210},"Globes","2026-07-12","Date set for Knesset elections","https:\u002F\u002Fen.globes.co.il\u002Fen\u002Farticle-date-set-for-knesset-elections-1001549071",{"outlet":212,"date":213,"title":214,"url":215},"Israel Democracy Institute","2026-04-15","Elections 101: Forming A Government After Elections","https:\u002F\u002Fen.idi.org.il\u002Farticles\u002F63982",{"outlet":217,"date":199,"title":218,"url":219},"The Jerusalem Post (N12 poll)","Nearly half of Israelis equally blame government, IDF for October 7 failures","https:\u002F\u002Fjpost.com\u002Fisrael-news\u002Farticle-910818",{"outlet":221,"date":222,"title":223,"url":224},"The Jerusalem Post (Maariv poll)","2026-10-02","Gaps narrow between coalition, opposition blocs as security is spotlighted in public agenda","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jpost.com\u002Fisrael-election-2026\u002Farticle-910396",{"outlet":226,"date":227,"title":228,"url":229},"The Times of Israel (Channel 13 poll)","2026-10-01","Netanyahu-led bloc regains lead in TV poll, but remains well short of Knesset majority","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Fliveblog_entry\u002Fnetanyahu-led-bloc-regains-lead-in-tv-poll-but-remains-well-short-of-knesset-majority\u002F",{"outlet":231,"date":227,"title":232,"url":233},"The Times of Israel","ToI poll: Netanyahu's bloc leads, Likud tied for 1st as voters fret over elections outcome","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Fliveblog_entry\u002Ftoi-poll-netanyahus-bloc-leads-likud-tied-for-1st-as-voters-fret-over-elections-outcome\u002F",{"outlet":235,"date":236,"title":237,"url":238},"The Jerusalem Post (Kan poll)","2026-09-28","Israel election poll: Eisenkot's Yashar leads as Netanyahu, opposition blocs tied at 52","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jpost.com\u002Fisrael-election-2026\u002Farticle-909918",{"outlet":240,"date":23,"title":241,"url":242},"IDF","Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot (2015-2019)","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.idf.il\u002Fen\u002Fmini-sites\u002Fpast-chiefs-of-staff\u002Flt-gen-gadi-eisenkot-2015-2019",{"outlet":244,"date":245,"title":246,"url":247},"The Jerusalem Post","2026-09-10","Gadi Eisenkot: Israel's next prime minister?","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jpost.com\u002Finfluencers-26\u002F50jews-26\u002Farticle-908126",{"outlet":231,"date":249,"title":250,"url":251},"2026-09-07","Hoping to put wind back in sails, B'Yachad tacks toward liberal-Zionist center","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Fhoping-to-put-wind-back-in-sails-byachad-tacks-toward-liberal-zionist-center\u002F",{"outlet":253,"date":254,"title":255,"url":256},"The Media Line","2026-09-26","Israeli Opposition Leaders Sign 'Repair and Hope' Pact as Election Campaign Enters Final Month","https:\u002F\u002Fthemedialine.org\u002Fby-region\u002Fisraeli-opposition-leaders-sign-repair-and-hope-pact-as-election-campaign-enters-final-month\u002F",{"outlet":231,"date":258,"title":259,"url":260},"2026-10-05","Winter's party fails to cross electoral threshold in poll","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Fliveblog_entry\u002Fwinters-party-fails-to-cross-electoral-threshold-in-poll-giving-pro-netanyahu-bloc-49-seats\u002F",{"outlet":244,"date":262,"title":263,"url":264},"2026-10-04","Israel Election 2026: Winter emerges as key right-wing spoiler for Benjamin Netanyahu","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jpost.com\u002Fisrael-election-2026\u002Farticle-910503",{"outlet":266,"date":267,"title":268,"url":269},"JTA","2026-09-24","Israel's election committee disqualifies Arab parties but not far-right Jewish ones","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jta.org\u002F2026\u002F09\u002F24\u002Fisrael\u002Fisraels-election-committee-disqualifies-arab-parties-but-not-far-right-jewish-ones",{"outlet":244,"date":271,"title":272,"url":273},"2026-10-03","Abu Shehadeh withdraws after Supreme Court signals disqualification","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jpost.com\u002Fisrael-election-2026\u002Farticle-910422",{"outlet":231,"date":258,"title":275,"url":276},"Eisenkot challenges Netanyahu to a televised debate before national election","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Feisenkot-challenges-netanyahu-to-a-televised-debate-before-national-election\u002F",{"outlet":231,"date":278,"title":279,"url":280},"2026-09-16","Eisenkot denies claim he promised Bedouin leaders he'd bring Ra'am into government","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Feisenkot-denies-claim-he-promised-bedouin-leaders-hed-bring-raam-into-government\u002F",{"outlet":231,"date":271,"title":282,"url":283},"Flydubai terrorist named as Hamam al-Hammami","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.timesofisrael.com\u002Foman-reportedly-banned-flydubai-terrorist-from-flying-due-to-suspected-extremism\u002F",{"outlet":244,"date":262,"title":285,"url":286},"Bennett: 'Direct line' connects flydubai attempted hijacking, Oct. 7","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jpost.com\u002Fisrael-news\u002Fpolitics-and-diplomacy\u002Farticle-910567",{"outlet":244,"date":288,"title":289,"url":290},"2026-09-19","Herzog's stance on Netanyahu's pardon raises possibility of compromise if election ends in deadlock","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jpost.com\u002Fisrael-election-2026\u002Farticle-909097",{"outlet":292,"date":236,"title":293,"url":294},"Israel Education Center","38 Party Lists Qualify for Israel's 2026 Parliamentary Election","https:\u002F\u002Fisraeled.org\u002F38-party-lists-israels-2026-parliamentary-election\u002F",{"outlet":198,"date":199,"title":296,"url":62},"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 (rules)",{"outlet":298,"date":299,"title":300,"url":301},"nobelprize.org","2026","Nobel Prize announcements 2026","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nobelprize.org\u002Fprizes\u002Fabout\u002Fprize-announcement-dates",{"outlet":298,"date":299,"title":303,"url":304},"The Nobel Peace Prize (287 candidates)","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nobelprize.org\u002Fprizes\u002Fpeace\u002F",{"outlet":306,"date":307,"title":308,"url":309},"Malay Mail","2026-05-02","How the Nobel Peace Prize works as 287 candidates vie for 2026 honour","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.malaymail.com\u002Fnews\u002Fworld\u002F2026\u002F05\u002F02\u002Fhow-the-nobel-peace-prize-works-as-287-candidates-vie-for-2026-honour\u002F218364",{"outlet":311,"date":312,"title":313,"url":314},"PRIO","2026-09-22","Nobel Peace Prize 2026: PRIO Director's updated list announced","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.prio.org\u002Fnews\u002F3746",{"outlet":316,"date":317,"title":318,"url":319},"NPR (via WYSU)","2025-10-11","This Nobel Peace Prize front-runner didn't win, but did get the 'alternative Nobel'","https:\u002F\u002Fwysu.org\u002Fnpr-national-news\u002F2025-10-11\u002Fthis-nobel-peace-prize-front-runner-didnt-win-but-did-get-the-alternative-nobel",{"outlet":321,"date":322,"title":71,"url":323},"Civil Courage Prize","2024","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.civilcourageprize.org\u002F2025-mykola-kuleba",{"outlet":325,"date":326,"title":327,"url":328},"Amnesty UK","2026-07-06","Israel\u002FOPT: 'Imminent threat to life', fears mounting for detained Palestinian doctor Hussam Abu Safiya","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.amnesty.org.uk\u002Flatest\u002Fisrael-opt-imminent-threat-to-life-fears-mounting-for-detained-palestinian-doctor-hussam-abu-safiya\u002F",{"outlet":330,"date":331,"title":332,"url":333},"NBC News","2025-10","Hopes dashed for release of prominent Gaza doctor detained by Israel","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nbcnews.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fhopes-release-prominent-gaza-doctor-detained-israel-dashed-rcna237259",{"outlet":335,"date":336,"title":337,"url":338},"CBS News","2025-10-13","Possible Nobel Peace Prize leak was \"highly likely\" espionage, committee secretary says","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cbsnews.com\u002Fnews\u002Fnobel-peace-prize-leak-espionage-committee-secretary\u002F",{"outlet":340,"date":341,"title":342,"url":343},"Sweden Herald","2026-01-30","Nobel leak most likely a digital breach","https:\u002F\u002Fswedenherald.com\u002Farticle\u002Fnobel-leak-most-likely-a-digital-breach",{"outlet":345,"date":346,"title":347,"url":348},"MercoPress","2026-02-03","Betting spike ahead of Machado's Nobel Peace Prize and suspected cyber breach trigger leak probe","https:\u002F\u002Fen.mercopress.com\u002F2026\u002F02\u002F03\u002Fbetting-spike-ahead-of-machado-s-nobel-peace-prize-and-suspected-cyber-breach-trigger-leak-probe",{"date":350,"title":351},"2026-10-08","Oct 8: The Democratic sweep trade, and the blockade that won't end",{"date":199,"title":353},"Oct 6: Romania picks a diplomat, and a mystery bet in France",[5],1793950845992]