[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1466},["ShallowReactive",2],{"home-en":3},{"show":4,"latest":27,"archive":103},{"code":5,"rtl":6,"name":7,"tagline":8,"slug":9,"description":10,"disclaimer":15,"footer":16,"hosts":17,"links":20,"author":24,"cover":25,"cover_full":26},"en",false,"The Poly Brief","What the market thinks, and why","the-poly-brief",[11,12,13,14],"Every day, people around the world put money on what happens next: who wins an election, whether rates go up, whether a ceasefire holds. On the prediction market Polymarket, those prices are odds, and they move the moment something happens.","The Poly Brief picks the one or two biggest moves on the board each morning, shows where the odds stand and how they shifted, and answers the question that actually matters: why is the market betting this way? What happened in the news, what's driving it, and what could still flip it.","Maya and Daniel, ten minutes, every day. Every number is backed by reporting, and every source is linked in the episode notes.","Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prices, not prophecies. Independent, not affiliated with Polymarket.","For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket.","The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.",{"maya":18,"daniel":19},"Maya","Daniel",{"apple":21,"spotify":22,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fshow\u002F51LrWw79maXwAkhbpatzRO","","David Meir-Levy","\u002Fmedia\u002Fcovers\u002Fen-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002Fcovers\u002Fen-3000.jpg",{"date":28,"lang":5,"title":29,"summary":30,"headline":33,"date_label":34,"published_utc":35,"snapshot_utc":35,"snapshot_label":36,"poster":37,"poster_full":38,"links":39,"audio":42,"markets":43},"2026-11-06","Nov 6: The AI selloff hits Anthropic's IPO, and the Fed hike in the same hour",[31,32],"On Thursday the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, its worst day since April 2025, as the Democratic midterm sweep raised fears of pauses in data center construction. Within the same hour, two markets that have nothing to do with each other fell together. Anthropic listing by the end of the year: 66%, down from 91 that morning, after reports that big investors doubt a $1.5 trillion valuation and that the roadshow could slip. Plus the \"AI bubble burst\" market, and the fine print that makes a Yes much harder than a bad day. Disclosure: this script is written with Claude, an AI model made by Anthropic, so we stick to outside reporting.","Then the Fed. A December hike fell from 78% to 66.5% in the same hour, with no Fed news and no data surprise. Why a stock crash moves rate odds, why traders still say hike, and the jobs report out today.","One bad hour. Two markets.","November 6, 2026","2026-11-06T06:48:02+00:00","November 6, 2026, 06:48 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-06\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-06\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":40,"spotify":41,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000800205158","https:\u002F\u002Fcreators.spotify.com\u002Fpod\u002Fprofile\u002Fdavid08438\u002Fepisodes\u002FNov-6-The-AI-selloff-hits-Anthropics-IPO--and-the-Fed-hike-in-the-same-hour-e3rseov",null,[44,59,73,88],{"title":45,"url":46,"volume_24h":47,"outcomes":48},"Anthropic IPO by __?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fanthropic-ipo-by",174589.18097699998,[49,54],{"label":50,"price":51,"change_1d":52,"change_1w":53},"December 31, 2026",0.6595,-0.2525,-0.2805,{"label":55,"price":56,"change_1d":57,"change_1w":58},"December 15, 2026",0.64,-0.235,-0.285,{"title":60,"url":61,"volume_24h":62,"outcomes":63},"AI bubble burst by...?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fai-bubble-burst-by",87114.56333799999,[64,69],{"label":65,"price":66,"change_1d":67,"change_1w":68},"June 30, 2027",0.275,0.04,0.05,{"label":50,"price":70,"change_1d":71,"change_1w":72},0.0845,0.0025,-0.0115,{"title":74,"url":75,"volume_24h":76,"outcomes":77},"Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31",151081.543274,[78,83],{"label":79,"price":80,"change_1d":81,"change_1w":82},"↑$1.5T",0.8365,-0.0885,-0.124,{"label":84,"price":85,"change_1d":86,"change_1w":87},"↑$1.75T",0.54,-0.25,-0.255,{"title":89,"url":90,"volume_24h":91,"outcomes":92},"Fed Decision in December?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Ffed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632",2562414.4096699995,[93,98],{"label":94,"price":95,"change_1d":96,"change_1w":97},"25 bps increase",0.665,-0.11,-0.07,{"label":99,"price":100,"change_1d":101,"change_1w":102},"No change",0.325,0.1,0.08,[104,190,317,380,443,497,574,621,702,742,782,837,871,912,947,984,1018,1051,1088,1125,1163,1195,1242,1289,1329,1360,1395,1430],{"date":105,"lang":5,"title":106,"summary":107,"headline":110,"date_label":111,"published_utc":112,"snapshot_utc":112,"snapshot_label":113,"poster":114,"poster_full":115,"links":116,"audio":42,"markets":119},"2026-11-05","Nov 5: Mississippi's 1,138 votes, Alaska's math, and Iran's new clock",[108,109],"Yesterday Scott Colom led Mississippi's Senate race by 43 votes and the market gave him 80%. By Wednesday evening the lead was 1,138, and the market says 96. Why traders are so sure in a state with no recount law at all, what's still out (3,600 mail ballots, an unknown pile of affidavits), and how a tie would be decided: a coin toss. Then Alaska, where Mary Peltola is at 94.5% on a 626-vote lead, and the one analysis that says the ranked choice count could flip it.","Then Iran. Who called it on the old ceasefire market: the November 3 date resolved No, as the market said, but October 31 and November 2 are stuck in a dispute. And Polymarket opened a new market that starts the clock from zero: 96.9% that the quiet holds through today, 58.5 through November 15, 28.5 through the end of the year.","1,138 votes. And a new clock.","November 5, 2026","2026-11-05T04:38:35+00:00","November 5, 2026, 04:38 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-05\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-05\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":117,"spotify":118,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000799963038","https:\u002F\u002Fcreators.spotify.com\u002Fpod\u002Fprofile\u002Fdavid08438\u002Fepisodes\u002FNov-5-Mississippis-1-138-votes--Alaskas-math--and-Irans-new-clock-e3rpr3q",[120,131,145,160,175],{"title":121,"url":122,"volume_24h":123,"outcomes":124},"US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-iran-effective-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20261103",405501.194952,[125,128],{"label":126,"price":127,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":42},"November 5",0.969,{"label":129,"price":130,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":42},"November 6",0.92,{"title":132,"url":133,"volume_24h":134,"outcomes":135},"US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt",976405.8884309999,[136,141],{"label":137,"price":138,"change_1d":139,"change_1w":140},"October 31",0.9995,0.002,0.037,{"label":142,"price":138,"change_1d":143,"change_1w":144},"November 2",0.0035,0.062,{"title":146,"url":147,"volume_24h":148,"outcomes":149},"Mississippi Senate Election Winner","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fmississippi-senate-election-winner",2897754.017229,[150,155],{"label":151,"price":152,"change_1d":153,"change_1w":154},"Scott Colom (D)",0.962,0.8885,0.827,{"label":156,"price":157,"change_1d":158,"change_1w":159},"Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)",0.0395,-0.8855,-0.8255,{"title":161,"url":162,"volume_24h":163,"outcomes":164},"Alaska Senate Election Winner","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Falaska-senate-election-winner",2498806.468212001,[165,170],{"label":166,"price":167,"change_1d":168,"change_1w":169},"Mary Peltola (D)",0.945,0.025,0.245,{"label":171,"price":172,"change_1d":173,"change_1w":174},"Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)",0.058,-0.017,-0.247,{"title":176,"url":177,"volume_24h":178,"outcomes":179},"Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Frepublican-senate-seats-after-the-midterms-low-brackets",591822.286204,[180,185],{"label":181,"price":182,"change_1d":183,"change_1w":184},"44",0.921,0.905,0.836,{"label":186,"price":187,"change_1d":188,"change_1w":189},"45",0.057,-0.7725,0.001,{"date":191,"lang":5,"title":192,"summary":193,"headline":196,"date_label":197,"published_utc":198,"snapshot_utc":198,"snapshot_label":199,"poster":200,"poster_full":201,"links":202,"audio":42,"markets":205},"2026-11-04","Nov 4: The wave, a 43-vote Senate race, and Israel's first mandate",[194,195],"The morning after the midterms. Democrats won the Senate and the House, and we open the board on every call we made: the Senate at 64.5% two weeks ago, Kansas, Maine, Texas. And two misses, both in the same direction: Iowa, where the market had the Republican at 58%, and the Texas governor's race, where Gina Hinojosa beat Greg Abbott, the first Democratic governor there since 1990. Then Mississippi: at 11:30 at night the market gave Scott Colom 12%. Thirty five minutes later he led by 28 votes, and the market said 75. Now it's 43 votes and 80%. Plus Alaska, two Dan Sullivans, and the man with \"zero interest\" who is now the favorite for 2028.","Then Israel. The election results are official, the consultations start today, and Gadi Eisenkot is at 55%, up 11 in a day. Lieberman's switch, the recommendation math (46 for Netanyahu, 48 confirmed for Eisenkot, 19 more expected from the Arab parties), and why a first mandate is not a government.","The wave. And 43 votes.","November 4, 2026","2026-11-04T10:55:58+00:00","November 4, 2026, 10:55 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-04\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-04\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":203,"spotify":204,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000799796967","https:\u002F\u002Fcreators.spotify.com\u002Fpod\u002Fprofile\u002Fdavid08438\u002Fepisodes\u002FNov-4-The-wave--a-43-vote-Senate-race--and-Israels-first-mandate-e3rnv5f",[206,211,225,234,245,256,261,266,277,282,297,312],{"title":207,"url":208,"volume_24h":209,"outcomes":210},"Which party will win the Senate in 2026?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",12866139.516862,[],{"title":212,"url":213,"volume_24h":214,"outcomes":215},"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fbalance-of-power-2026-midterms",13483972.264284,[216,220],{"label":217,"price":138,"change_1d":218,"change_1w":219},"Democrats Sweep",0.2445,0.3445,{"label":221,"price":222,"change_1d":223,"change_1w":224},"D Senate, R House",0.0005,-0.009,-0.0085,{"title":146,"url":147,"volume_24h":226,"outcomes":227},2989864.6502819997,[228,231],{"label":151,"price":229,"change_1d":230,"change_1w":230},0.8045,0.6695,{"label":156,"price":232,"change_1d":233,"change_1w":233},0.1915,-0.6735,{"title":161,"url":162,"volume_24h":235,"outcomes":236},1868323.5017170003,[237,241],{"label":166,"price":238,"change_1d":239,"change_1w":240},0.863,0.148,0.118,{"label":171,"price":242,"change_1d":243,"change_1w":244},0.136,-0.149,-0.119,{"title":176,"url":177,"volume_24h":246,"outcomes":247},482879.444328,[248,252],{"label":181,"price":249,"change_1d":250,"change_1w":251},0.7115,0.6415,0.6315,{"label":186,"price":253,"change_1d":254,"change_1w":255},0.226,0.1015,0.1605,{"title":257,"url":258,"volume_24h":259,"outcomes":260},"Texas Governor Election Winner","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Ftexas-governor-winner-2026",4452461.352318001,[],{"title":262,"url":263,"volume_24h":264,"outcomes":265},"Kansas Senate Election Winner","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fkansas-senate-election-winner",1041570.443878,[],{"title":267,"url":268,"volume_24h":269,"outcomes":270},"Nebraska Senate Election Winner  ","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnebraska-senate-election-winner",1702251.28514,[271,275],{"label":272,"price":138,"change_1d":273,"change_1w":274},"Pete Ricketts (R)",0.3245,0.2845,{"label":276,"price":222,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":42},"Democrat",{"title":278,"url":279,"volume_24h":280,"outcomes":281},"Iowa Senate Election Winner","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fiowa-senate-election-winner",1267214.132709,[],{"title":283,"url":284,"volume_24h":285,"outcomes":286},"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fdemocratic-presidential-nominee-2028",2150858.408206,[287,292],{"label":288,"price":289,"change_1d":290,"change_1w":291},"Jon Ossoff",0.29,0.14,0.1395,{"label":293,"price":294,"change_1d":295,"change_1w":296},"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",0.1735,0.0155,0.0125,{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":300,"outcomes":301},"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwho-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election",921823.1649820001,[302,307],{"label":303,"price":304,"change_1d":305,"change_1w":306},"Gadi Eizenkot",0.5505,0.109,0.231,{"label":308,"price":309,"change_1d":310,"change_1w":311},"Benjamin Netanyahu",0.2715,-0.0635,-0.1635,{"title":313,"url":314,"volume_24h":315,"outcomes":316},"Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-election-raam-of-seats",59944.851845000005,[],{"date":318,"lang":5,"title":319,"summary":320,"headline":323,"date_label":324,"published_utc":325,"snapshot_utc":325,"snapshot_label":326,"poster":327,"poster_full":328,"links":329,"audio":332,"markets":334},"2026-11-03","Nov 3: A strike on Qeshm, three hours of silence. And Election Day",[321,322],"Overnight, the US struck targets on Iran's Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported explosions just after midnight local time, and the market barely moved. More than three hours later, a report said the US did it, and in five minutes the bet that the pause holds through Tuesday fell from 92% to 53%. It's now 6.5%. Every date from November 4 on has already resolved No. Why \"through November 2\" is still at 64%, why even October 31, a date that's over, fell to 27, and what US officials call \"limited defensive strikes\".","Then Election Day in America. Democrats are at 75.5% for the Senate and 75.5% to take both chambers, up ten points in a week. Nate Silver's model crossed 80% for the first time. The path through North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Texas, the polling errors that went the other way in 2016, 2020 and 2024, and the poll closing times to watch tonight. Plus a quick Who Called It: Apple and NVIDIA after Apple's earnings.","Strike at night. Vote today.","November 3, 2026","2026-11-03T04:41:49+00:00","November 3, 2026, 04:41 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-03\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-03\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":330,"spotify":331,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000799547801","https:\u002F\u002Fcreators.spotify.com\u002Fpod\u002Fprofile\u002Fdavid08438\u002Fepisodes\u002FNov-3-A-strike-on-Qeshm--three-hours-of-silence--And-Election-Day-e3rktml",{"seconds":333},595,[335,345,355,365],{"title":132,"url":133,"volume_24h":336,"outcomes":337},4329969.619340001,[338,342],{"label":137,"price":339,"change_1d":340,"change_1w":341},0.775,-0.216,-0.15,{"label":142,"price":343,"change_1d":344,"change_1w":42},0.6375,-0.339,{"title":212,"url":213,"volume_24h":346,"outcomes":347},8838278.628056997,[348,350],{"label":217,"price":349,"change_1d":68,"change_1w":101},0.755,{"label":351,"price":352,"change_1d":353,"change_1w":354},"R Senate, D House",0.185,-0.05,-0.08,{"title":207,"url":208,"volume_24h":356,"outcomes":357},2780039.5159250004,[358,360],{"label":359,"price":349,"change_1d":67,"change_1w":101},"Democratic Party",{"label":361,"price":362,"change_1d":363,"change_1w":364},"Republican Party",0.235,-0.06,-0.1,{"title":366,"url":367,"volume_24h":368,"outcomes":369},"Largest Company end of December 2026?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Flargest-company-end-of-december-2026",19698.732435,[370,375],{"label":371,"price":372,"change_1d":373,"change_1w":374},"NVIDIA",0.625,0.07,-0.02,{"label":376,"price":377,"change_1d":378,"change_1w":379},"Apple",0.3505,-0.0775,0.016,{"date":381,"lang":5,"title":382,"summary":383,"headline":386,"date_label":387,"published_utc":388,"snapshot_utc":388,"snapshot_label":389,"poster":390,"poster_full":391,"links":392,"audio":395,"markets":397},"2026-11-02","Nov 2: Eisenkot hits 50, then meets Lieberman. And Texas on the eve of the midterms",[384,385],"Israel's prime minister market flipped again. Gadi Eisenkot is at 43.5%, up nine points in a day, with Benjamin Netanyahu down to 35.5. On Sunday evening Eisenkot touched 50%, around the time Bennett's party said it will recommend him, on about $25,000 of trading. Then Ynet reported Avigdor Lieberman's line against a minority government, and by eleven at night he was back at 43. Why the market moves: a minority-government plan that runs on abstentions, an undecided Haredi party, and a president who wants a unity government. Plus Who Called It: the Likud's seat count.","Then the US midterms, one day out. Texas governor: Greg Abbott fell from 69% on Saturday to 58% this morning, after a New York Times\u002FSiena poll had Gina Hinojosa ahead, 48 to 47, in a state where no Democrat has won statewide in 32 years. The Senate sits at 71.5% for Democrats. And from Polymarket's homepage, the 2028 Democratic race: AOC 16, Newsom 15.5, and Jon Ossoff, who is on the ballot tomorrow and says he has zero interest, 14.5.","Eisenkot is back. Texas wobbles.","November 2, 2026","2026-11-02T04:06:48+00:00","November 2, 2026, 04:06 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-02\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-02\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":393,"spotify":394,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000799321093","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F1llFgzyZyodLonTKcn5hPw",{"seconds":396},634,[398,407,419,426,436],{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":399,"outcomes":400},1313809.994373,[401,405],{"label":303,"price":402,"change_1d":403,"change_1w":404},0.4355,0.0885,-0.104,{"label":308,"price":406,"change_1d":363,"change_1w":101},0.355,{"title":257,"url":258,"volume_24h":408,"outcomes":409},347482.66776,[410,415],{"label":411,"price":412,"change_1d":413,"change_1w":414},"Greg Abbott (R)",0.5805,-0.081,-0.1105,{"label":416,"price":417,"change_1d":102,"change_1w":418},"Gina Hinojosa (D) ",0.415,0.11,{"title":207,"url":208,"volume_24h":420,"outcomes":421},1583991.999696,[422,424],{"label":359,"price":423,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":373},0.715,{"label":361,"price":425,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":97},0.285,{"title":283,"url":284,"volume_24h":427,"outcomes":428},1361770.7297760001,[429,432],{"label":293,"price":430,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":431},0.1595,-0.012,{"label":433,"price":434,"change_1d":435,"change_1w":222},"Gavin Newsom",0.155,-0.006,{"title":212,"url":213,"volume_24h":437,"outcomes":438},2308315.739849,[439,441],{"label":217,"price":440,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":68},0.705,{"label":351,"price":362,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":442},-0.03,{"date":444,"lang":5,"title":445,"summary":446,"headline":449,"date_label":450,"published_utc":451,"snapshot_utc":451,"snapshot_label":452,"poster":453,"poster_full":454,"links":455,"audio":458,"markets":460},"2026-11-01","Nov 1: Two days to the midterms. A $134,000 bet before sunrise in Nebraska, and Kansas flips",[447,448],"Two days before the US midterms, the market gives Democrats 72.5% to win the Senate, up six points in a week, and 94.5% for the House. Why: a generic ballot around D+8, Trump's approval near 37%, and a record early vote. Then Nebraska, from Polymarket's homepage: Pete Ricketts jumped five points on Saturday, after a New York Times\u002FSiena poll had him up 49 to 43 over independent Dan Osborn. And most of that jump came from one account, about $134,000 in under an hour, around three in the morning New York time.","Then Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932: Adam Hamilton went from 38% to 52.5% in four days, after three polls in a row put him ahead of Senator Roger Marshall. Plus Who Called It on every October 31 deadline: Apple, Iran, the blockade, NATO and Russia.","Two days out. Kansas flips.","November 1, 2026","2026-11-01T06:56:21+00:00","November 1, 2026, 06:56 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-01\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-11-01\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":456,"spotify":457,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000799192899","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F2zU5oTwLHHA9zycZ5Leqxs",{"seconds":459},614,[461,470,480,492],{"title":207,"url":208,"volume_24h":462,"outcomes":463},478896.35905900004,[464,468],{"label":359,"price":465,"change_1d":466,"change_1w":467},0.725,0.02,0.06,{"label":361,"price":425,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":353},-0.01,{"title":267,"url":268,"volume_24h":471,"outcomes":472},766687.33629,[473,475],{"label":272,"price":474,"change_1d":68,"change_1w":42},0.745,{"label":476,"price":477,"change_1d":478,"change_1w":479},"Independent",0.255,-0.04,0.01,{"title":262,"url":263,"volume_24h":481,"outcomes":482},148597.25119,[483,487],{"label":484,"price":485,"change_1d":479,"change_1w":486},"Adam Hamilton (D)",0.525,0.15,{"label":488,"price":489,"change_1d":490,"change_1w":491},"Roger Marshall (R)",0.485,0.005,-0.14,{"title":212,"url":213,"volume_24h":493,"outcomes":494},1671398.141401,[495,496],{"label":217,"price":423,"change_1d":479,"change_1w":68},{"label":351,"price":362,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":374},{"date":498,"lang":5,"title":499,"summary":500,"headline":503,"date_label":504,"published_utc":505,"snapshot_utc":505,"snapshot_label":506,"poster":507,"poster_full":508,"links":509,"audio":512,"markets":513},"2026-10-30","Oct 30: Apple's crown, decided by tonight's close. And Israel's count is done, but the math isn't",[501,502],"At Thursday's closing bell, NVIDIA was still the world's most valuable company, about $67 billion ahead of Apple. By that evening, the market gave Apple 65% to be number one at the end of October, up from about 6% on Wednesday. October 31 is a Saturday, so today's close decides. Why the market flipped, on less than $10,000 of trading, and why NVIDIA has come back before.","Then Israel: every vote is counted. The Likud party has 27 seats, Netanyahu's bloc 53, Eisenkot's 48, the Arab parties a record 19. The count had Ra'am at eight seats by dawn on Thursday; the market took about twelve hours to believe it. And Eisenkot climbed back from 24.5% to 33.6% in one evening: a meeting with Bennett, an offer from the ultra-Orthodox party, and the account that bet $129,000 against him selling a big part of that bet.","Apple flips. Eisenkot bounces.","October 30, 2026","2026-10-30T06:05:41+00:00","October 30, 2026, 06:05 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-30\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-30\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":510,"spotify":511,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000798847459","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F2kaAc7pYYqwm1QHWPml0uI",{"seconds":396},[514,527,537,552,562],{"title":515,"url":516,"volume_24h":517,"outcomes":518},"Largest Company end of October 2026?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Flargest-company-end-of-october-2026",136505.207884,[519,523],{"label":376,"price":520,"change_1d":521,"change_1w":522},0.65,0.531,0.41,{"label":371,"price":524,"change_1d":525,"change_1w":526},0.348,-0.533,-0.4125,{"title":366,"url":367,"volume_24h":528,"outcomes":529},276827.62912399997,[530,533],{"label":371,"price":531,"change_1d":532,"change_1w":364},0.52,-0.115,{"label":376,"price":534,"change_1d":535,"change_1w":536},0.4485,0.1185,0.1135,{"title":538,"url":539,"volume_24h":540,"outcomes":541},"Israel Election: Likud # of seats?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-election-likud-of-seats",981560.812472,[542,547],{"label":543,"price":544,"change_1d":545,"change_1w":546},"25-29",0.991,0.0075,0.766,{"label":548,"price":549,"change_1d":550,"change_1w":551},"30-34",0.0065,-0.0015,-0.0685,{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":553,"outcomes":554},2059706.707926,[555,558],{"label":308,"price":556,"change_1d":478,"change_1w":557},0.405,0.12,{"label":303,"price":559,"change_1d":560,"change_1w":561},0.3355,0.09,-0.159,{"title":313,"url":314,"volume_24h":563,"outcomes":564},226929.6202,[565,570],{"label":566,"price":567,"change_1d":568,"change_1w":569},"8+",0.972,0.8725,0.8325,{"label":571,"price":545,"change_1d":572,"change_1w":573},"6",-0.022,-0.2245,{"date":575,"lang":5,"title":576,"summary":577,"headline":580,"date_label":581,"published_utc":582,"snapshot_utc":582,"snapshot_label":583,"poster":584,"poster_full":585,"links":586,"audio":589,"markets":591},"2026-10-29","Oct 29: The count moved against Netanyahu. The market moved against Eisenkot. And two rate calls we got right",[578,579],"With almost 90% of the votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc fell from 57 seats to 53, and the Arab parties hit a record 19. And yet the market moved the other way: Gadi Eisenkot dropped from 36.7% to 25% to be Israel's next prime minister, while Netanyahu holds at 45.5%. Why: the only route to 61 for Eisenkot runs through the Arab parties, and his own partners have said no. Plus one trade of about $130,000 against him, the scenarios analysts see (an Arab-backed government, a unity government, or another election), and the dates from here.","Then Who called it: the Bank of Canada hiked to 2.5%, its first hike since 2023 (we said 84.3%), and the Fed held, 10 to 2, with both dissenters wanting a hike (we said 95.8%). Now the market gives a Fed hike in December 77.5%. Why, what could stop it, and the data between now and December 9.","Bloc shrinks. Eisenkot sinks.","October 29, 2026","2026-10-29T04:26:03+00:00","October 29, 2026, 04:26 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-29\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-29\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":587,"spotify":588,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000798647703","https:\u002F\u002Fcreators.spotify.com\u002Fpod\u002Fprofile\u002Fdavid08438\u002Fepisodes\u002FOct-29-The-count-moved-against-Netanyahu--The-market-moved-against-Eisenkot--And-two-rate-calls-we-got-right-e3ravge",{"seconds":590},645,[592,603,614],{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":593,"outcomes":594},5299804.133167001,[595,599],{"label":308,"price":596,"change_1d":597,"change_1w":598},0.455,-0.015,0.19,{"label":303,"price":600,"change_1d":601,"change_1w":602},0.2525,-0.125,-0.248,{"title":538,"url":539,"volume_24h":604,"outcomes":605},1794789.207481,[606,610],{"label":543,"price":607,"change_1d":608,"change_1w":609},0.9835,0.0385,0.7635,{"label":548,"price":611,"change_1d":612,"change_1w":613},0.012,-0.038,-0.063,{"title":89,"url":90,"volume_24h":615,"outcomes":616},1999281.0219320003,[617,618],{"label":94,"price":339,"change_1d":479,"change_1w":469},{"label":99,"price":619,"change_1d":490,"change_1w":620},0.2,0.015,{"date":622,"lang":5,"title":623,"summary":624,"headline":627,"date_label":628,"published_utc":629,"snapshot_utc":629,"snapshot_label":630,"poster":631,"poster_full":632,"links":633,"audio":636,"markets":638},"2026-10-28","Oct 28: Israel flips overnight, Likud from 28.5% to 99%. And two central banks decide today",[625,626],"Yesterday morning the market gave Gadi Eisenkot's party 71.5% to finish first in Israel's election. This morning Likud is at 99.2%. All three exit polls put Likud on top, and with about 37% of the votes counted, Likud has 28 seats to Eisenkot's 21, and Netanyahu's bloc is at 57. Who called it: the market didn't, and neither did the polls. Netanyahu is now at 46.5% to be the next prime minister, up 20 points, but no bloc is at 61, and the market gives \"no majority\" 96.7%. Why the price is that low, what the double envelopes could change, and the timeline from here.","Then central bank Wednesday. The Bank of Canada decides this morning, and the market gives a hike 84.3%, even though economists are split 19 to 15. The Fed decides this afternoon, and \"no change\" is at 95.8%, six days before the midterms. Why the two neighbors are on different clocks, and what could surprise.","Israel flips. Two banks decide.","October 28, 2026","2026-10-28T04:21:15+00:00","October 28, 2026, 04:21 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-28\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-28\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":634,"spotify":635,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000798467082","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F0GOjb0pptDRnWn8HMSqljm",{"seconds":637},678,[639,653,662,677,688],{"title":640,"url":641,"volume_24h":642,"outcomes":643},"Israeli Legislative Election Winner","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisraeli-legislative-election-winner",9317783.913054,[644,649],{"label":645,"price":646,"change_1d":647,"change_1w":648},"Likud",0.992,0.707,0.717,{"label":650,"price":651,"change_1d":652,"change_1w":652},"Yashar",0.0055,-0.7095,{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":654,"outcomes":655},15352719.249422004,[656,658],{"label":308,"price":657,"change_1d":619,"change_1w":598},0.465,{"label":303,"price":659,"change_1d":660,"change_1w":661},0.367,-0.2035,-0.1395,{"title":663,"url":664,"volume_24h":665,"outcomes":666},"Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-election-which-bloc-wins-more-seats",148521.933829,[667,672],{"label":668,"price":669,"change_1d":670,"change_1w":671},"Bibi",0.9855,0.5155,0.4905,{"label":673,"price":674,"change_1d":675,"change_1w":676},"Opp.",0.0145,-0.5155,-0.4905,{"title":678,"url":679,"volume_24h":680,"outcomes":681},"Fed Decision in October?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Ffed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",9199209.111899,[682,685],{"label":99,"price":683,"change_1d":466,"change_1w":684},0.9575,0.0825,{"label":94,"price":608,"change_1d":686,"change_1w":687},-0.0215,-0.0865,{"title":689,"url":690,"volume_24h":691,"outcomes":692},"Bank of Canada Decision in October?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fbank-of-canada-decision-in-october-20260715203359314",55969.783024,[693,697],{"label":94,"price":694,"change_1d":695,"change_1w":696},0.843,0.017,0.131,{"label":698,"price":699,"change_1d":700,"change_1w":701},"No Change",0.1555,-0.016,-0.131,{"date":703,"lang":5,"title":704,"summary":705,"headline":708,"date_label":709,"published_utc":710,"snapshot_utc":710,"snapshot_label":711,"poster":712,"poster_full":713,"links":714,"audio":717,"markets":719},"2026-10-27","Oct 27: Israel votes with Eisenkot at 57%, moved by one trader at dawn. And Anthropic files to go public",[706,707],"Israel votes today, and the market gives Gadi Eisenkot 57% to be the next prime minister, up four points overnight. Netanyahu is at 26.5%, and Naftali Bennett fell from 12.5% to 5.5%. We looked at the actual trades: the dawn jump for Eisenkot was one account spending about $4,900 in five minutes, and Bennett's slide started with a single $15,000 bet. No news explains either. What that says about a $57 million market, the rule that makes a caretaker Netanyahu a non-event, and what to watch tonight. Market figures are not a survey based on recognized statistical methods, and the polls quoted are from Friday and outdated.","Then Anthropic, which filed publicly for its IPO on Monday. The market now gives a listing by November 30 an 88.5% chance, up 28.5 points in a day. What's in the filing, why traders think November and not \"someday\", and what could still push it past the deadline. Disclosure: this script is written with Claude, an AI model made by Anthropic, so we stick to the filing and outside reporting.","Israel votes. Anthropic files.","October 27, 2026","2026-10-27T04:38:08+00:00","October 27, 2026, 04:38 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-27\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-27\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":715,"spotify":716,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000798301175","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F11eSwZFMMg138eUF3nbI7P",{"seconds":718},680,[720,729,737],{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":721,"outcomes":722},3237507.7121920004,[723,727],{"label":303,"price":724,"change_1d":725,"change_1w":726},0.5715,0.043,0.0725,{"label":308,"price":728,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":469},0.265,{"title":45,"url":46,"volume_24h":730,"outcomes":731},356975.719256,[732,735],{"label":50,"price":733,"change_1d":418,"change_1w":734},0.935,0.16,{"label":55,"price":130,"change_1d":101,"change_1w":736},0.165,{"title":640,"url":641,"volume_24h":738,"outcomes":739},1161849.409869,[740,741],{"label":650,"price":423,"change_1d":479,"change_1w":42},{"label":645,"price":425,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":42},{"date":743,"lang":5,"title":744,"summary":745,"headline":748,"date_label":749,"published_utc":750,"snapshot_utc":750,"snapshot_label":751,"poster":752,"poster_full":753,"links":754,"audio":757,"markets":759},"2026-10-26","Oct 26: One in five happened twice. Lula and Serbia's students beat the market, and Israel votes tomorrow with Eisenkot at 53%",[746,747],"Who called it? Not the market. Polymarket had Flávio Bolsonaro at about 80% in Brazil and Aleksandar Vučić's list at 71.5% in Serbia. Lula won by three and a half points, the first runoff comeback in Brazil's history, and Serbia's student list won a majority as turnout hit its highest level in decades. What the traders bet on, why the polls went the wrong way, and what we got wrong too.","Then Israel, which votes tomorrow. The market gives Gadi Eisenkot 52.8% to be the next prime minister, up five points in a week, with Netanyahu at 26.5%. His party Yashar is at 70% to be the largest. Why, what the last polls before the ban said, the bloc math that leaves Arab parties out, and what keeps Netanyahu in office until a new government is sworn in. Market figures are not a survey based on recognized statistical methods, and the polls quoted are from Friday and outdated.","The favorites lost. Israel votes.","October 26, 2026","2026-10-26T04:37:41+00:00","October 26, 2026, 04:37 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-26\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-26\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":755,"spotify":756,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000798117792","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F4BlO2ju6rNUoUoXXveaoqq",{"seconds":758},721,[760,768,775],{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":761,"outcomes":762},1278365.6293880001,[763,767],{"label":303,"price":764,"change_1d":765,"change_1w":766},0.5285,0.008,0.053,{"label":308,"price":728,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":374},{"title":640,"url":641,"volume_24h":769,"outcomes":770},950534.7623920001,[771,773],{"label":650,"price":772,"change_1d":597,"change_1w":168},0.7,{"label":645,"price":774,"change_1d":466,"change_1w":442},0.295,{"title":663,"url":664,"volume_24h":776,"outcomes":777},10823.988863,[778,780],{"label":673,"price":779,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":102},0.565,{"label":668,"price":781,"change_1d":479,"change_1w":354},0.435,{"date":783,"lang":5,"title":784,"summary":785,"headline":788,"date_label":789,"published_utc":790,"snapshot_utc":790,"snapshot_label":791,"poster":792,"poster_full":793,"links":794,"audio":797,"markets":799},"2026-10-25","Oct 25: Election Sunday. Brazil's runoff is a coin flip in the polls and 80% on the market, and Serbia votes after two years of student protests",[786,787],"Brazil votes in its presidential runoff today. Every final poll has Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula by one or two points of valid votes, inside the margin of error. The market gives Flávio almost 80%. Why traders are so much more confident than the pollsters: the first round, a poll miss, endorsements, and a record no runner-up has ever broken. And what keeps Lula alive.","Then Serbia, where the snap parliamentary election comes after almost two years of student-led protests over the Novi Sad station collapse. Aleksandar Vučić quit the presidency to lead his list, and the market gives it 71.5% to finish first. The students' list is at 28.5%. The last poll, the polls that disagree, and what to watch tonight.","Two elections. One Sunday.","October 25, 2026","2026-10-25T04:13:05+00:00","October 25, 2026, 04:13 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-25\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-25\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":795,"spotify":796,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797986122","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F5lhULqMjaXaaHfrNwco0dg",{"seconds":798},671,[800,813,824],{"title":801,"url":802,"volume_24h":803,"outcomes":804},"Brazil Presidential Election","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fbrazil-presidential-election",2854921.143038,[805,810],{"label":806,"price":807,"change_1d":808,"change_1w":809},"Flávio Bolsonaro",0.799,-0.001,-0.0135,{"label":811,"price":812,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":479},"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",0.205,{"title":814,"url":815,"volume_24h":816,"outcomes":817},"Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fserbia-parliamentary-election-winner-2026",636368.284351,[818,821],{"label":819,"price":423,"change_1d":820,"change_1w":67},"Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia",-0.065,{"label":822,"price":425,"change_1d":823,"change_1w":478},"Student List – Students Win",0.065,{"title":825,"url":826,"volume_24h":827,"outcomes":828},"Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fbrazil-presidential-election-second-round-margin-of-victory",1026466.204424,[829,833],{"label":830,"price":831,"change_1d":832,"change_1w":469},"Flávio Bolsonaro \u003C4%",0.395,-0.005,{"label":834,"price":835,"change_1d":836,"change_1w":823},"Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%",0.37,0.03,{"date":838,"lang":5,"title":839,"summary":840,"headline":843,"date_label":844,"published_utc":845,"snapshot_utc":845,"snapshot_label":846,"poster":847,"poster_full":848,"links":849,"audio":852,"markets":853},"2026-10-23","Oct 23: Drones over the Black Sea, the NATO-Russia clash market jumps ten points, and the Senate market wakes up",[841,842],"Seven cargo ships hit off Romania and Bulgaria in two weeks, about thirty sailors dead or missing, and Romania's top defence council meeting on Thursday evening. In the hours before it met, the market on a NATO-Russia military clash by October 31 jumped from 8.5% to 18.5%. Why traders are nervous, and why the fine print has said No every time so far, including when Poland shot down Russian drones in 2025.","Then eleven days before the US midterms, the Senate market finally moved: Democrats 68.5%, up four points since Wednesday, after the last New York Times\u002FSiena poll of the cycle. Plus a tied poll in Maine, two Dan Sullivans in Alaska, and our \"Who called it?\" on the GTA VI trailer, where the market beat our napkin math.","The Black Sea. And the Senate.","October 23, 2026","2026-10-23T05:02:59+00:00","October 23, 2026, 05:02 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-23\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-23\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":850,"spotify":851,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797730973","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F0XvXWtROWS2WYRrlxAGuoG",{"seconds":637},[854,864],{"title":855,"url":856,"volume_24h":857,"outcomes":858},"NATO x Russia military clash by...?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025",493712.280212,[859,861],{"label":860,"price":406,"change_1d":560,"change_1w":557},"December 31",{"label":862,"price":863,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":42},"November 30",0.225,{"title":207,"url":208,"volume_24h":865,"outcomes":866},247003.50787,[867,869],{"label":359,"price":868,"change_1d":466,"change_1w":67},0.685,{"label":361,"price":870,"change_1d":374,"change_1w":363},0.315,{"date":872,"lang":5,"title":873,"summary":874,"headline":877,"date_label":878,"published_utc":879,"snapshot_utc":879,"snapshot_label":880,"poster":881,"poster_full":882,"links":883,"audio":886,"markets":888},"2026-10-22","Oct 22: Putin says 'around November tenth', the talks market jumps 30 points, and the NBA champions are priced fifth",[875,876],"After a three hour meeting with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, the Kremlin said Putin is ready \"in principle\" to resume three way talks with Ukraine and the US around November 10. Within three hours, the market on Russia and Ukraine meeting by the end of the year jumped from 44.5% to 73.5%, and it's at 80% now. Why every date on the table is in November, why traders aren't buying a ceasefire, and why talks have stalled before.","Then the NBA season is three days old, and it already has a story: the defending champion Knicks are only fifth in the market, and LeBron crashed their ring night in his first game as a Sixer. Thunder 21.5%, Spurs 19.5%, and why the favorite only wins about half the time.","Talks back on. Champs priced fifth.","October 22, 2026","2026-10-22T03:01:28+00:00","October 22, 2026, 03:01 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-22\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-22\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":884,"spotify":885,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797550113","https:\u002F\u002Fcreators.spotify.com\u002Fpod\u002Fprofile\u002Fdavid08438\u002Fepisodes\u002FOct-22-Putin-says-around-November-tenth--the-talks-market-jumps-30-points--and-the-NBA-champions-are-priced-fifth-e3qsqpl",{"seconds":887},639,[889,901],{"title":890,"url":891,"volume_24h":892,"outcomes":893},"Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Frussia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716",175750.436415,[894,897],{"label":860,"price":895,"change_1d":774,"change_1w":896},0.8,0.34,{"label":862,"price":898,"change_1d":899,"change_1w":900},0.68,0.3,0.36,{"title":902,"url":903,"volume_24h":904,"outcomes":905},"NBA: 2027 Champion","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnba-2027-champion",1069923.6002830002,[906,909],{"label":907,"price":908,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":466},"Oklahoma City Thunder",0.215,{"label":910,"price":911,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":374},"San Antonio Spurs",0.195,{"date":913,"lang":5,"title":914,"summary":915,"headline":918,"date_label":919,"published_utc":920,"snapshot_utc":920,"snapshot_label":921,"poster":922,"poster_full":923,"links":924,"audio":927,"markets":928},"2026-10-21","Oct 21: Thirteen days out, the Senate market won't budge, and GTA VI's trailer is losing a race against a view counter",[916,917],"Thirteen days before the US midterms, the market gives Democrats a 64.5% chance of taking the Senate. Two weeks ago it gave them a 63.5% chance of sweeping Congress, and that number hasn't moved since. Where the path runs (North Carolina, Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Maine), why traders like it, and why Republicans say the margins are thinner than the headlines.","Then the fun part: people are betting real money on how many YouTube views the Grand Theft Auto VI launch trailer gets in its first week. The market says 60 to 80 million. The published counts say that's going to be tight. Plus Who Called It: Romania finally has a government.","The Senate, and a trailer.","October 21, 2026","2026-10-21T03:54:55+00:00","October 21, 2026, 03:54 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-21\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-21\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":925,"spotify":926,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416048","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F0I1W4jBcRygemSIoAorWY4",{"seconds":637},[929,935],{"title":207,"url":208,"volume_24h":930,"outcomes":931},266439.09669100016,[932,934],{"label":359,"price":933,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":479},0.645,{"label":361,"price":406,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":469},{"title":936,"url":937,"volume_24h":938,"outcomes":939},"# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fof-views-of-grand-theft-auto-vi-launch-trailer-on-week-1",191867.35814500003,[940,944],{"label":941,"price":942,"change_1d":943,"change_1w":42},"60-80M",0.839,0.3345,{"label":945,"price":486,"change_1d":946,"change_1w":42},"40-60M",-0.315,{"date":948,"lang":5,"title":949,"summary":950,"headline":953,"date_label":954,"published_utc":955,"snapshot_utc":955,"snapshot_label":956,"poster":957,"poster_full":958,"links":959,"audio":962,"markets":963},"2026-10-20","Oct 20: Canada's rate hike goes from 15% to 73% in a day, and a three-hour scare on Iran",[951,952],"On Monday morning, the market gave a Bank of Canada rate hike next week about a 15% chance. By the evening it was 70, and this morning it's 73.5. A hawkish weekend from Governor Tiff Macklem, a soft inflation number that barely mattered, and a survey showing Canadians expect a lot more inflation. Plus what could still keep the bank on hold.","Then: the market on a US-Iran ceasefire through October 22 fell from 95 to 64 in an hour on Monday, the same day Iranian media claimed a US strike on a naval base, and was back at 90 three hours later. What the claim was, what Washington said, and why the fine print matters. And in Who Called It: the Tesla Roadster market finally resolved.","Canada turns hawkish. Fast.","October 20, 2026","2026-10-20T03:38:28+00:00","October 20, 2026, 03:38 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-20\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-20\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":960,"spotify":961,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797415964","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F59bLPvsHNK6vpA7SVYkNsk",{"seconds":798},[964,975],{"title":689,"url":690,"volume_24h":965,"outcomes":966},117593.163168,[967,971],{"label":94,"price":968,"change_1d":969,"change_1w":970},0.735,0.5815,0.611,{"label":698,"price":972,"change_1d":973,"change_1w":974},0.2685,-0.571,-0.6085,{"title":132,"url":133,"volume_24h":976,"outcomes":977},1747436.805027,[978,980],{"label":979,"price":183,"change_1d":478,"change_1w":42},"October 22",{"label":981,"price":982,"change_1d":983,"change_1w":42},"October 24",0.87,-0.045,{"date":985,"lang":5,"title":986,"summary":987,"headline":990,"date_label":991,"published_utc":992,"snapshot_utc":992,"snapshot_label":993,"poster":994,"poster_full":995,"links":996,"audio":999,"markets":1001},"2026-10-19","Oct 19: Trump endorses Netanyahu and Eisenkot drops 8, and Brazil's first debate",[988,989],"Yesterday we told you the market gave Gadi Eisenkot 54% to be Israel's next prime minister. Then Donald Trump posted his \"complete and total endorsement\" of Benjamin Netanyahu, and within about two hours Eisenkot was at 48. This morning he's at 46, Netanyahu at 29.5. What Trump said, what Sunday night's polls said, and why the fine print still matters.","Plus: six days before Brazil's runoff, Lula has climbed from 12.5% to 20.5% in a week. Flávio Bolsonaro is still at 79, even though the polls are close to a coin flip. The first head to head debate, a 2022 polling miss, and what to watch before Sunday.","Trump posts. Eisenkot drops.","October 19, 2026","2026-10-19T00:36:39+00:00","October 19, 2026, 00:36 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-19\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-19\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":997,"spotify":998,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797415841","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F0vsGhLb18dTE6JWA0g3PJW",{"seconds":1000},640,[1002,1010],{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":1003,"outcomes":1004},918139.385296,[1005,1009],{"label":303,"price":1006,"change_1d":1007,"change_1w":1008},0.4595,-0.0805,-0.003,{"label":308,"price":774,"change_1d":466,"change_1w":374},{"title":801,"url":802,"volume_24h":1011,"outcomes":1012},1858643.2487559998,[1013,1017],{"label":806,"price":1014,"change_1d":1015,"change_1w":1016},0.7895,-0.007,-0.071,{"label":811,"price":812,"change_1d":479,"change_1w":102},{"date":1019,"lang":5,"title":1020,"summary":1021,"headline":1024,"date_label":1025,"published_utc":1026,"snapshot_utc":1026,"snapshot_label":1027,"poster":1028,"poster_full":1029,"links":1030,"audio":1033,"markets":1035},"2026-10-18","Oct 18: Eisenkot hits 54 as Israel calls it a tie, and the Fed hike fades",[1022,1023],"Nine days before Israel's election, the market gives Gadi Eisenkot 54% to be the next prime minister, a high for the month, up thirteen points in a week. Benjamin Netanyahu is at 27.5. The polls? Basically a tie between the blocs, and Netanyahu himself says \"we're tied.\" So why the gap? The fine print of the market, the polls of the week, and what could still flip it.","Plus: on Thursday the market gave an October Fed hike 31.5%. This morning it's 13.5, after Chair Kevin Warsh said \"I don't prejudge meetings\" and the Fed went quiet. And in Who Called It, the Tesla Roadster market is at 99.95% Yes, and still officially disputed.","Eisenkot climbs. The hike fades.","October 18, 2026","2026-10-18T02:50:19+00:00","October 18, 2026, 02:50 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-18\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-18\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1031,"spotify":1032,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797415965","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F0sQmEXPuGia7vX08ALPZR8",{"seconds":1034},644,[1036,1044],{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":1037,"outcomes":1038},513684.2435600002,[1039,1043],{"label":303,"price":1040,"change_1d":1041,"change_1w":1042},0.544,0.048,0.1315,{"label":308,"price":66,"change_1d":374,"change_1w":97},{"title":678,"url":679,"volume_24h":1045,"outcomes":1046},460794.346796,[1047,1049],{"label":99,"price":1048,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":836},0.865,{"label":94,"price":1050,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":374},0.135,{"date":1052,"lang":5,"title":1053,"summary":1054,"headline":1057,"date_label":1058,"published_utc":1059,"snapshot_utc":1059,"snapshot_label":1060,"poster":1061,"poster_full":1062,"links":1063,"audio":1066,"markets":1068},"2026-10-16","Oct 16: Brazil's race tightens, and a Roadster beats a stopwatch nobody saw",[1055,1056],"Ten days before Brazil's runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro is still the favorite at 79%. But he was near 89% a few days ago, and three polls in three days put the race at about 51 to 49. What moved the market on Thursday, why traders still lean his way, and the two debates that could change it.","Plus: Tesla finally showed the new Roadster, nine years after the first unveiling, and said it hit 0 to 60 in 0.81 seconds. The market on a sub-one-second run went from about 20% to 97% overnight. The catch: reporters say no live timer was shown. And in Who Called It, Romania is one vote away from a government.","Brazil tightens. Tesla flies.","October 16, 2026","2026-10-16T03:38:56+00:00","October 16, 2026, 03:38 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-16\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-16\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1064,"spotify":1065,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416117","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F2YXz2LgOwb5ljEoPZ4W4D4",{"seconds":1067},626,[1069,1075],{"title":801,"url":802,"volume_24h":1070,"outcomes":1071},2271393.7518339995,[1072,1074],{"label":806,"price":1073,"change_1d":478,"change_1w":820},0.7925,{"label":811,"price":812,"change_1d":67,"change_1w":373},{"title":1076,"url":1077,"volume_24h":1078,"outcomes":1079},"Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-the-tesla-roadsters-0-60-time-be-less-than-1-second",124632.19126299999,[1080,1084],{"label":1081,"price":1082,"change_1d":1083,"change_1w":42},"Yes",0.973,0.743,{"label":1085,"price":1086,"change_1d":1087,"change_1w":42},"No",0.027,-0.743,{"date":1089,"lang":5,"title":1090,"summary":1091,"headline":1094,"date_label":1095,"published_utc":1096,"snapshot_utc":1096,"snapshot_label":1097,"poster":1098,"poster_full":1099,"links":1100,"audio":1103,"markets":1105},"2026-10-15","Oct 15: One tenth of a percent moves the Fed, and Apple closes in on Nvidia",[1092,1093],"Core inflation came in one tenth of a point hotter than expected, and the odds of a Fed rate hike on October 28 jumped from about 20% to 48.5% in an hour. Then they faded back to 31.5. Why the hike looks delayed rather than cancelled: Polymarket gives a December hike 78.5%.","Plus the race for the world's most valuable company. Apple closed above $5 trillion for the first time, Nvidia fell 3%, and Apple's chances of finishing 2026 on top jumped to 25.5%, up 17 points in a week. What's moving each stock, and the two earnings reports that could flip it.","Hot inflation. Hot race at the top.","October 15, 2026","2026-10-14T22:26:45+00:00","October 14, 2026, 22:26 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-15\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-15\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1101,"spotify":1102,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416049","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F1qW3w1Q7nG1Vzkfc0NtTs4",{"seconds":1104},586,[1106,1115],{"title":678,"url":679,"volume_24h":1107,"outcomes":1108},4613072.431081995,[1109,1113],{"label":99,"price":1110,"change_1d":1111,"change_1w":1112},0.675,-0.13,-0.16,{"label":94,"price":870,"change_1d":1114,"change_1w":734},0.13,{"title":366,"url":367,"volume_24h":1116,"outcomes":1117},139666.77206699998,[1118,1122],{"label":371,"price":1119,"change_1d":1120,"change_1w":1121},0.71,-0.075,-0.165,{"label":376,"price":477,"change_1d":1123,"change_1w":1124},0.101,0.1695,{"date":1126,"lang":5,"title":1127,"summary":1128,"headline":1131,"date_label":1132,"published_utc":1133,"snapshot_utc":1133,"snapshot_label":1134,"poster":1135,"poster_full":1136,"links":1137,"audio":1140,"markets":1142},"2026-10-14","Oct 14: Romania's Thursday ultimatum, and Anthropic's moving IPO date",[1129,1130],"Romania may finally get a prime minister: Polymarket gives Luca Niculescu an 87.5% chance, up 29 points in a day. Last week we had him at 43. The Social Democrats are reportedly ready to join his government, and President Nicușor Dan has reportedly told the parties: a majority by Thursday, or Parliament gets dissolved on Friday.","Plus Anthropic's IPO, the listing that was supposed to happen in October, then November. A month ago traders gave a listing by November 15 about 74%. Today, under 7. By the end of the year, 68.5, down 14 points in a week. What the reports say, what the market is waiting for, and why today's investor meeting matters.","Romania races a deadline. Anthropic slips.","October 14, 2026","2026-10-14T01:17:03+00:00","October 14, 2026, 01:17 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-14\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-14\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1138,"spotify":1139,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416118","https:\u002F\u002Fcreators.spotify.com\u002Fpod\u002Fprofile\u002Fdavid08438\u002Fepisodes\u002FOct-14-Romanias-Thursday-ultimatum--and-Anthropics-moving-IPO-date-e3qfupd",{"seconds":1141},637,[1143,1157],{"title":1144,"url":1145,"volume_24h":1146,"outcomes":1147},"Next Prime Minister of Romania?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnext-prime-minister-of-romania-732",79173.661423,[1148,1153],{"label":1149,"price":1150,"change_1d":1151,"change_1w":1152},"Luca Niculescu",0.875,0.2925,0.288,{"label":1154,"price":140,"change_1d":1155,"change_1w":1156},"Sorin Grindeanu",-0.106,-0.061,{"title":45,"url":46,"volume_24h":1158,"outcomes":1159},63325.266103,[1160,1161],{"label":50,"price":868,"change_1d":478,"change_1w":491},{"label":55,"price":1162,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":1111},0.655,{"date":1164,"lang":5,"title":1165,"summary":1166,"headline":1169,"date_label":1170,"published_utc":1171,"snapshot_utc":1171,"snapshot_label":1172,"poster":1173,"poster_full":1174,"links":1175,"audio":1178,"markets":1180},"2026-10-13","Oct 13: Netanyahu slides, Bennett climbs, and the Fed's next move",[1167,1168],"Two weeks to Israel's election: Gadi Eisenkot is back to 47% on Polymarket after dipping to 41 on Sunday, Benjamin Netanyahu fell to 30.5%, down six points since Thursday, and Naftali Bennett climbed to 14%. A safety-net offer from the Joint List, a sentence about Netanyahu as a minister that Bennett walked back the same day, and polls stuck around 52-52.","Plus the Fed: traders give a rate hike on October 28 a 19.5% chance, up three points overnight. Two weeks ago it was 64%. What crashed it, what could bring it back, and why Wednesday's inflation number matters more than anything Fed officials say this week.","Netanyahu slides. The Fed waits.","October 13, 2026","2026-10-13T04:02:11+00:00","October 13, 2026, 04:02 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-13\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-13\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1176,"spotify":1177,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416104","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F5SAElid5czkUX3Ua7c19yG",{"seconds":1179},585,[1181,1189],{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":1182,"outcomes":1183},232670.825006,[1184,1187],{"label":303,"price":1185,"change_1d":1186,"change_1w":71},0.4745,0.0115,{"label":308,"price":1188,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":353},0.305,{"title":678,"url":679,"volume_24h":1190,"outcomes":1191},1526861.5961399998,[1192,1194],{"label":99,"price":1193,"change_1d":442,"change_1w":42},0.805,{"label":94,"price":911,"change_1d":836,"change_1w":42},{"date":1196,"lang":5,"title":1197,"summary":1198,"headline":1201,"date_label":1202,"published_utc":1203,"snapshot_utc":1203,"snapshot_label":1204,"poster":1205,"poster_full":1206,"links":1207,"audio":1210,"markets":1212},"2026-10-12","Oct 12: Le Pen slips, Philippe gets a TV bump, and the states that want to pause AI",[1199,1200],"France, six months out: Marine Le Pen is still the favorite on Polymarket, but she's down to 39% from almost 46 a week ago. Édouard Philippe jumped to 24.5% the night he presented his program on France 2. What moved it, what the polls say, and why a court in Paris is the real wild card.","Plus a new board: will US states ban new data centers? Indiana jumped 14 points in a week to 29.5% (by 2028), and Texas by the end of 2027 rose 5 points in a day. Why New York's \"first statewide moratorium\" doesn't count, and why nothing can happen before January.","Le Pen slips. States eye the AI plug.","October 12, 2026","2026-10-11T20:29:03+00:00","October 11, 2026, 20:29 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-12\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-12\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1208,"spotify":1209,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797415906","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F2fy0xLsvbJHahZvlKNQVWP",{"seconds":1211},594,[1213,1224,1234],{"title":1214,"url":1215,"volume_24h":1216,"outcomes":1217},"Next French Presidential Election","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnext-french-presidential-election",770471.4190169999,[1218,1222],{"label":1219,"price":1220,"change_1d":223,"change_1w":1221},"Marine Le Pen",0.3925,-0.056,{"label":1223,"price":169,"change_1d":168,"change_1w":823},"Édouard Philippe",{"title":1225,"url":1226,"volume_24h":1227,"outcomes":1228},"Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Findiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929",101330.068335,[1229,1231],{"label":1230,"price":774,"change_1d":67,"change_1w":290},"December 31, 2028",{"label":1232,"price":1233,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":479},"December 31, 2027",0.105,{"title":1235,"url":1236,"volume_24h":1237,"outcomes":1238},"Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Ftexas-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260928",127004.09961100001,[1239,1241],{"label":1230,"price":1240,"change_1d":620,"change_1w":620},0.27,{"label":1232,"price":863,"change_1d":68,"change_1w":467},{"date":1243,"lang":5,"title":1244,"summary":1245,"headline":1248,"date_label":1249,"published_utc":1250,"snapshot_utc":1250,"snapshot_label":1251,"poster":1252,"poster_full":1253,"links":1254,"audio":1257,"markets":1258},"2026-10-11","Oct 11: The Nobel nobody priced, Eisenkot's slide, and Iran's strange calm",[1246,1247],"Who called it? Nobody. The Nobel Peace Prize went to Navi Pillay, a name that wasn't even on Polymarket's list of seventy. Then Israel, sixteen days before the vote: a month ago traders gave Gadi Eisenkot about 55%. Now it's 41%, and Netanyahu is at 34.5. What moved it, and why the Arab-party math sits at the center.","Plus: Iran. Traders say the US won't strike before the end of October (77.5%), and also that the blockade isn't ending this year (only 42% it ends by December 31). How both can be true at once.","Eisenkot slips. Iran: calm, not peace.","October 11, 2026","2026-10-11T03:58:45+00:00","October 11, 2026, 03:58 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-11\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-11\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1255,"spotify":1256,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416017","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F2pXSNPTzNFYT0aicBO7ezn",{"seconds":718},[1259,1267,1278],{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":1260,"outcomes":1261},409100.85957800003,[1262,1265],{"label":303,"price":1263,"change_1d":431,"change_1w":1264},0.4125,-0.037,{"label":308,"price":1266,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":374},0.345,{"title":132,"url":133,"volume_24h":1268,"outcomes":1269},773213.324007,[1270,1275],{"label":1271,"price":1272,"change_1d":1273,"change_1w":1274},"October 12",0.9565,0.014,0.0965,{"label":1276,"price":1277,"change_1d":479,"change_1w":1233},"October 15",0.915,{"title":1279,"url":1280,"volume_24h":1281,"outcomes":1282},"US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fus-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080",386814.5292419999,[1283,1285],{"label":1284,"price":933,"change_1d":353,"change_1w":820},"March 31",{"label":860,"price":1286,"change_1d":1287,"change_1w":1288},0.4205,-0.051,-0.1075,{"date":1290,"lang":5,"title":1291,"summary":1292,"headline":1295,"date_label":1296,"published_utc":1297,"snapshot_utc":1297,"snapshot_label":1298,"poster":1299,"poster_full":1300,"links":1301,"audio":1304,"markets":1306},"2026-10-09","Oct 9: The Nobel favorite nobody can explain, and Brazil's runoff",[1293,1294],"The Nobel Peace Prize is announced at noon Israel time, and one name just jumped from 5% to 19% on Polymarket overnight: Yulia Navalnaya. We looked for the news behind it and couldn't find any. What the experts' list says, why this market has been burned before, and what happened the last time a price spiked just before the announcement.","Plus: Brazil. Sixteen days before the runoff, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro 85.7%. The first round surprised the polls, and the first runoff polls say it's close, but not that close.","Nobel noon: who's the favorite?","October 9, 2026","2026-10-09T02:55:44+00:00","October 9, 2026, 02:55 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-09\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-09\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1302,"spotify":1303,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416105","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F0APpUgxh1dgFNYXdt4ux50",{"seconds":1305},545,[1307,1321],{"title":1308,"url":1309,"volume_24h":1310,"outcomes":1311},"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139",2582088.6262020003,[1312,1316],{"label":1313,"price":232,"change_1d":1314,"change_1w":1315},"Yulia Navalnaya",0.1425,0.1525,{"label":1317,"price":1318,"change_1d":1319,"change_1w":1320},"Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms",0.149,-0.0055,-0.008,{"title":801,"url":802,"volume_24h":1322,"outcomes":1323},2557931.340439,[1324,1327],{"label":806,"price":1325,"change_1d":379,"change_1w":1326},0.8565,0.254,{"label":811,"price":1050,"change_1d":374,"change_1w":1328},-0.26,{"date":1330,"lang":5,"title":1331,"summary":1332,"headline":1335,"date_label":1336,"published_utc":1337,"snapshot_utc":1337,"snapshot_label":1338,"poster":1339,"poster_full":1340,"links":1341,"audio":1343,"markets":1345},"2026-10-08","Oct 8: The Democratic sweep trade, and the blockade that won't end",[1333,1334],"Twenty six days before the US midterms, traders give Democrats a 63.5% chance of winning both the House and the Senate. A month ago it was a coin flip. The polls, the forecasters and the approval numbers behind the move, and why the Senate map still makes this a lot harder than the House.","Plus: the US naval blockade of Iran. The chance it's officially ended by the end of October fell from 28.5% to 20.5% in a week. A rejected peace offer, stalled talks in Qatar, and a report about strike options before the election.","Blue sweep? The blockade stays.","October 8, 2026","2026-10-08T00:23:57+00:00","October 8, 2026, 00:23 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-08\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-08\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1342,"spotify":23,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416147",{"seconds":1344},613,[1346,1352],{"title":212,"url":213,"volume_24h":1347,"outcomes":1348},1029294.134344,[1349,1351],{"label":217,"price":1350,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":479},0.635,{"label":351,"price":66,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":469},{"title":1279,"url":1280,"volume_24h":1353,"outcomes":1354},643032.892934,[1355,1356],{"label":1284,"price":465,"change_1d":42,"change_1w":597},{"label":860,"price":1357,"change_1d":1358,"change_1w":1359},0.4945,-0.002,-0.0965,{"date":1361,"lang":5,"title":1362,"summary":1363,"headline":1366,"date_label":1367,"published_utc":1368,"snapshot_utc":1368,"snapshot_label":1369,"poster":1370,"poster_full":1371,"links":1372,"audio":1375,"markets":1377},"2026-10-07","Oct 7: Israel's race tightens, and the Nobel nobody can call",[1364,1365],"Three weeks before Israel votes, Gadi Eisenkot is the market's favorite to be the next prime minister at 48%. But Benjamin Netanyahu is up five points in a week, to 36.5%, and Naftali Bennett is fading. What the polls say, why the coalition math matters more than who finishes first, and why a caretaker prime minister doesn't count.","Plus: the Nobel Peace Prize is announced on Friday. Sudan's volunteer Emergency Response Rooms lead at just 15%. Why this is one of the hardest markets to call, and what happened the last time traders knew too early.","Israel tightens. The Nobel is wide open.","October 7, 2026","2026-10-06T19:59:56+00:00","October 6, 2026, 19:59 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-07\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-07\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1373,"spotify":1374,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416077","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F7lICVbLlerdhR0Sv4oO4ue",{"seconds":1376},630,[1378,1386],{"title":298,"url":299,"volume_24h":1379,"outcomes":1380},524228.56203100004,[1381,1384],{"label":303,"price":1382,"change_1d":549,"change_1w":1383},0.4815,0.069,{"label":308,"price":1385,"change_1d":479,"change_1w":68},0.365,{"title":1308,"url":1309,"volume_24h":1387,"outcomes":1388},294779.57715399994,[1389,1392],{"label":1317,"price":1315,"change_1d":1390,"change_1w":1391},0.006,-0.011,{"label":1393,"price":1394,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":42},"Mykola Kuleba",0.085,{"date":1396,"lang":5,"title":1397,"summary":1398,"headline":1401,"date_label":1402,"published_utc":1403,"snapshot_utc":1403,"snapshot_label":1404,"poster":1405,"poster_full":1406,"links":1407,"audio":1410,"markets":1412},"2026-10-06","Oct 6: Romania picks a diplomat, and a mystery bet in France",[1399,1400],"Romania has gone five months without a full government. On Monday night President Nicușor Dan named a career diplomat, Luca Niculescu, as his fourth pick for prime minister, and the market jumped him from about 10% to 43% in a day. Why traders like him, and why the parliamentary math still looks brutal.","Plus: Marine Le Pen is up to 43.5% to win France in 2027, and the mayor of Cannes suddenly sits at 12%. One is about polls and a court ruling. The other is about two brand new wallets.","Romania picks. France gets a mystery bet.","October 6, 2026","2026-10-05T20:40:16+00:00","October 5, 2026, 20:40 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-06\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-06\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1408,"spotify":1409,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797415842","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F60zTqbv07HP21smyNRzuyL",{"seconds":1411},531,[1413,1423],{"title":1144,"url":1145,"volume_24h":1414,"outcomes":1415},326708.939733,[1416,1419],{"label":1149,"price":1417,"change_1d":1418,"change_1w":42},0.432,0.3325,{"label":1154,"price":1420,"change_1d":1421,"change_1w":1422},0.114,-0.0985,-0.2465,{"title":1214,"url":1215,"volume_24h":1424,"outcomes":1425},834639.3075980002,[1426,1429],{"label":1219,"price":1427,"change_1d":1428,"change_1w":67},0.4345,-0.014,{"label":1223,"price":352,"change_1d":490,"change_1w":469},{"date":1431,"lang":5,"title":1432,"summary":1433,"headline":1436,"date_label":1437,"published_utc":1438,"snapshot_utc":1438,"snapshot_label":1439,"poster":1440,"poster_full":1441,"links":1442,"audio":1445,"markets":1447},"2026-10-05","Oct 5: Brazil flips to Bolsonaro, and the Fed hike vanishes",[1434,1435],"A month ago the market had Lula as the favorite in Brazil. This morning it gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 82% chance. What happened in Sunday's first round, why the money moved so fast, and what could still flip it before the October 25 runoff.","Plus: a week ago traders saw a Fed rate hike in October as likely. Now it's down to about 16%. One cautious speech, a softer inflation print and a very weak jobs report, explained.","Brazil flips. The Fed hike fades.","October 5, 2026","2026-10-05T09:01:09+00:00","October 5, 2026, 09:01 UTC","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-05\u002Fen\u002Fposter-1400.jpg","\u002Fmedia\u002F2026-10-05\u002Fen\u002Fposter.jpg",{"apple":1443,"spotify":1444,"youtube":23},"https:\u002F\u002Fpodcasts.apple.com\u002Fus\u002Fpodcast\u002Fthe-poly-brief\u002Fid6819226739?i=1000797416050","https:\u002F\u002Fopen.spotify.com\u002Fepisode\u002F4Q0wdVTeN4paT1qbP9YZPT",{"seconds":1446},510,[1448,1458],{"title":801,"url":802,"volume_24h":1449,"outcomes":1450},6174647.621846001,[1451,1455],{"label":806,"price":1452,"change_1d":1453,"change_1w":1454},0.8185,0.1825,0.242,{"label":811,"price":1456,"change_1d":1457,"change_1w":86},0.175,-0.18,{"title":678,"url":679,"volume_24h":1459,"outcomes":1460},591536.258435,[1461,1464],{"label":99,"price":1462,"change_1d":479,"change_1w":1463},0.835,0.5,{"label":94,"price":736,"change_1d":469,"change_1w":1465},-0.48,1793950845783]